Large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature associations with Horn of Africa June–September rainfall
Version of Record online: 12 DEC 2008
Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
International Journal of Climatology
Volume 29, Issue 8, pages 1075–1100, 30 June 2009
How to Cite
Segele, Z. T., Lamb, P. J. and Leslie, L. M. (2009), Large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature associations with Horn of Africa June–September rainfall. Int. J. Climatol., 29: 1075–1100. doi: 10.1002/joc.1751
- Issue online: 12 JUN 2009
- Version of Record online: 12 DEC 2008
- Manuscript Accepted: 7 JUL 2008
- Manuscript Revised: 23 MAY 2008
- Manuscript Received: 18 JAN 2008
- NOAA Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (CIMMS)
- International Activities Office of the U.S. National Weather Service through NOAA. Grant Number: NA17RJ1227
- National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia
- 1989. A closer look at the effect of the 11-year solar cycle and the quasi-biennial oscillation on Northern Hemisphere 700 mb height and extratropical North American surface temperature. Journal of Climate 2: 1295–1313. , .
- 1996. Long-lead forecasts of seasonal precipitation in Africa using CCA. Weather and Forecasting 11: 506–520. , , .
- 2006. Regional and global atmospheric patterns governing rainfall in the southern Levant. International Journal of Climatology 26: 55–73. , , , , .
- 2006. An examination of the runs test, reverse arrangements test, and modified reverse arrangements test for assessing surface EMG signal stationarity. Journal of Neuroscience Methods 156: 242–248. , , , , , , , , .
- 2007. Frequency and within-type variations of large-scale circulation types and their effects on low-frequency climate variability in Central Europe since 1780. International Journal of Climatology 27: 473–491. , , .
- 1993. Interannual variability of rainfall in the eastern Horn of Africa and indicators of atmospheric circulation. International Journal of Climatology 13: 533–546. , .
- 2007. Interannual variability and ensemble forecast of Upper Blue Nile Basin Kiremt season precipitation. Journal of Hydrometeorology 8: 327–343. , .
- 1997. Rainfall anomalies in the source region of the Nile and their connection with the Indian summer. Journal of Climate 10: 1380–1392. .
- 2001. Seasonality and atmospheric dynamics of the teleconnection between African rainfall and tropical sea-surface temperature: Atlantic vs. ENSO. International Journal of Climatology 21: 973–1005. , , .
- 2001. On the robust utilization of non-parametric tests for evaluation of combined cyclical and monotonic drift. Measurement Science & Technology 12: 1439–1444. , , .
- 1998. Matched-block bootstrap for dependent data. Bernoulli 4: 305–328. , , , , .
- 2000. A theory for the tropical tropospheric biennial oscillation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 57: 2209–2224. , .
- 1987. Interannual variation of the Tropical Easterly Jet. Monthly Weather Review 115: 1739–1759. , .
- 2000. The climate and hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile River. Geographical Journal 166: 49–62. .
- 1997. Large-scale atmospheric dynamics and Sahelian precipitation. Journal of Climate 10: 1137–1152. .
- 1997. Bootstrap Methods and their Application. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge. , .
- 2008. Seasonal forecasting of Ethiopian spring rains. Meteorological Applications 15: 73–83. , , .
- 2005. Dominant modes of moisture flux anomalies over North America. Journal of Hydrometeorology 6: 194–209. , .
- 1981. Applied Regression Analysis, 2nd edn. Wiley: New York. , .
- 1997. A method to estimate the statistical significance of a correlation when the data are serially correlated. Journal of Climate 10: 2147–2153. .
- 1993. An Introduction to the Bootstrap. Chapman and Hall CRC: Boca Raton, Florida. , .
- 1990. Regionalization and spatial estimation of Ethiopian mean annual rainfall. International Journal of Climatology 10: 473–494. , .
- 1969. A major low-level air current near the Indian Ocean during the northern summer. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 95: 362–380. .
- 1987. Rainfall teleconnections in Northern and Northeastern Africa. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 38: 191–197. .
- 1991. Prediction of seasonal rainfall in the Sahel region using empirical and dynamical methods. Journal of Forecasting 10: 21–56. , , , .
- 1986. Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures, 1901–85. Nature 320: 602–607. , , .
- 2003. Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Science 302: 1027–1030. , , .
- 2004. Seasonal forecasting of the Ethiopian summer rains. International Journal of Climatology 24: 1345–1358. , , , .
- 2002. Links between circulation and changes in the characteristics of Iberian Rainfall. International Journal of Climatology 22: 1593–1615. , .
- 2001. A study of the dynamic factors influencing the rainfall variability in the West African Sahel. Journal of Climate 14: 1337–1359. , .
- 1991. Climate Dynamics of the Tropics. Kluwer Academic Publishers: Dordrecht. .
- 2000. Interannual and longer term variability of upper-air circulation over the tropical Atlantic and West Africa in boreal summer. International Journal of Climatology 20: 1415–1430. .
- 2001. In search of zonal circulations in the Equatorial Atlantic sector from the NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis. International Journal of Climatology 21: 37–47. .
- 1995. Prediction of summer rainfall over South Africa. Journal of Climate 8: 1511–1518. , , .
- 2003. Nonstationary time series, cointegration, and the principle of the common cause. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 54: 527–551. .
- 1998. An improved coupled model for ENSO prediction and implications for ocean initialization. Part II: The coupled model. Monthly Weather Review 126: 1022–1034. , , .
- 2002. Tropical monsoons around Africa: Stability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation associations and links with continental climate. Journal of Geophysical Research 107: 3151–3151. , , .
- 1999. Exploratory long-range models to estimate summer climate variability over Southern Africa. Journal of Climate 12: 1892–1899. , , .
- 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year reanalysis project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 77: 437–471. , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .
- 1978. Northern summer tropical circulations during drought and normal rainfall months. Monthly Weather Review 106: 331–347. , .
- 2002. NCEP dynamical seasonal forecast system 2000. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83: 1019–1037. , , , , , , , , , , .
- 2003. Mechanisms for the wet and dry rainfall years over Eritrea during the summer rainfall season (June-August), M.Sc thesis, Department of Oceanography/Zoology, The University of Cape Town, South Africa, (http://www.egs.uct.ac.za/∼mussie/Thesis.html). .
- 2007. Predictability of June to September rainfall in Ethiopia. Monthly Weather Review 135: 628–650. , .
- 1971. Observational study of the tropical upper troposphere motion field during the Northern Hemisphere summer. Journal of Applied Meteorology 10: 1066–1096. .
- 1976. Oscillation of a monsoon system. Part I. Observational aspects. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 33: 1937–1954. , .
- 2000. Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship on interdecadal timescale. Journal of Climate 13: 579–595. , .
- 1978a. Large-scale tropical Atlantic surface circulation patterns associated with Subsaharan weather anomalies. Tellus 30: 240–251. .
- 1978b. Case studies of tropical Atlantic surface circulation patterns during recent Sub-Saharan weather anomalies: 1967 and 1968. Monthly Weather Review 106: 482–491. .
- 1987. North Atlantic Oscillation: concept and an application. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 68: 1218–1225. , .
- 1992. Further case studies of tropical Atlantic surface atmospheric and oceanic patterns associated with Subsaharan drought. Journal of Climate 5: 476–488. , .
- 1998. A review of the predictability and prediction of ENSO. Journal of Geophysical Research 103: 14375–14393. , , , , , , , , .
- 2002. The tropospheric biennial oscillation and the Asian-Australian monsoon rainfall. Journal of Climate 15: 722–744. , .
- 2005. A Study on climatological features of the Asian summer monsoon: dynamics, energetics and variability. Pure and Applied Geophysics 162: 1511–1541. , , .
- 1986. Use of the Southern Oscillation to predict Australian sorghum yield. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 38: 9–15. .
- 1988. El-Niño-Southern Oscillation impact prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 69: 173–176. .
- 1986. The nature of rainfall variability in Africa south of the equator. International Journal of Climatology 6: 515–530. .
- 2003. The seasonal evolution of the atmospheric circulation over West Africa and Equatorial Africa. Journal of Climate 16: 1013–1030. , .
- 1989. The spatial and temporal patterns of East African rainfall derived from principal component analysis. International Journal of Climatology 9: 145–167. .
- 2004. Automatic block-length selection for the dependent bootstrap. Econometric Reviews 23: 53–70. , .
- 2003. Teleconnections between Indian monsoon and Sahel rainfall and the Mediterranean. International Journal of Climatology 23: 173–186. , , .
- 2008. Interannual variability of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: role of large-scale environment. Journal of Climate 21: 1083–1103. , , , , .
- 2003. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. Journal of Geophysical Research 108: 4407–4407. , , , , , , , .
- 1986. Rotation of principal components. International Journal of Climatology 6: 293–335. .
- 2007. Comment on “A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise”. Science 317: 1866c. , , .
- 2005. Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy season over Ethiopia. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 89: 153–180. , .
- 2008. Evaluation and adaptation of a regional climate model for the Horn of Africa: rainfall climatology and interannual variability. International Journal of Climatology DOI: 10.1002/joc.1681. , , .
- 2004. Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia. International Journal of Climatology 24: 973–983. , .
- 1998. The effects of the southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones on Ethiopian drought. International Journal of Climatology 18: 1373–1388. , .
- 1983. The Southern Oscillation and long-range forecasting of the summer monsoon rainfall over India. Monthly Weather Review 111: 1830–1837. , .
- 2005. Matched block bootstrap for resampling multiseason hydrologic time series. Hydrological Processes 19: 3659–3682. , .
- 1983. On the role of the seasonal cycle. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 40: 303–313. .
- 2000. Statistics and Data Analysis: From Elementary to Intermediate. Prentice Hall: Upper Saddle River, New Jersey. , .
- 1984. The interpretation and estimation of effective sample size. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 23: 800–811. , .
- 1984. Some effects of finite sample size and persistence on meteorological statistics. Part II: potential predictability. Monthly Weather Review 112: 2369–2379. .
- 2000. The global monsoon as seen through the divergent atmospheric circulation. Journal of Climate 13: 3969–3993. , , .
- 1977. Summer winds around the Southern Red Sea. Archiv für Meteorologie, Geophysik, und Bioklimatologie B25: 221–231. , .
- 1999. Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge. , .
- 1998. Diagnosis and short-lead time prediction of summer rainfall in tropical Africa at interannual and multidecadal timescales. Journal of Climate 11: 3167–3191. .
- 2006. African climate change: taking the shorter route. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 87: 1355–1366. , , , , , , , , , .
- 1998. Monsoons: processes, predictability, and prospects for prediction. Journal of Geophysical Research 103: 14451–14510. , , , , , , .
- 1992. Monsoon and ENSO: selectively interactive systems. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 118: 877–926. , .
- 1987. Sampling distribution of the time between effectively independent samples. Monthly Weather Review 115: 740–743. .
- 1995. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction. Academic Press: New York. .
- 1997. Resampling hypothesis tests for autocorrelated fields. Journal of Climate 10: 65–82. .
- 1987. A comprehensive ocean-atmosphere data set. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 68: 1239–1250. , , , .
- 1997. Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78: 2539–2558. , .
- 2007. Depiction of the variations of Great Plains precipitation and its relationship with tropical central-eastern Pacific SST. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 46: 136–153. , , , .
- 1990. Impact of Indian monsoon on the coupled atmosphere/ocean system in the tropical Pacific. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 44: 29–41. .
- 2008. Trends in the boreal summer regional Hadley and Walker circulations as expressed in precipitation records from Asia and Africa during the latter half of the 20th century. International Journal of Climatology 28: 563–578. , .
- 1995. Taking serial correlation into account in tests of the mean. Journal of Climate 8: 336–351. , .