Research Article

You have full text access to this OnlineOpen article

Consistency of modelled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere

  1. B. D. Santer1,*,
  2. P. W. Thorne2,
  3. L. Haimberger3,
  4. K. E. Taylor1,
  5. T. M. L. Wigley4,
  6. J. R. Lanzante5,
  7. S. Solomon6,
  8. M. Free7,
  9. P. J. Gleckler1,
  10. P. D. Jones8,
  11. T. R. Karl9,
  12. S. A. Klein1,
  13. C. Mears10,
  14. D. Nychka4,
  15. G. A. Schmidt11,
  16. S. C. Sherwood12,
  17. F. J. Wentz10

Article first published online: 10 OCT 2008

DOI: 10.1002/joc.1756

Issue

International Journal of Climatology

International Journal of Climatology

Volume 28, Issue 13, pages 1703–1722, 15 November 2008

Additional Information

How to Cite

Santer, B. D., Thorne, P. W., Haimberger, L., Taylor, K. E., Wigley, T. M. L., Lanzante, J. R., Solomon, S., Free, M., Gleckler, P. J., Jones, P. D., Karl, T. R., Klein, S. A., Mears, C., Nychka, D., Schmidt, G. A., Sherwood, S. C. and Wentz, F. J. (2008), Consistency of modelled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere. Int. J. Climatol., 28: 1703–1722. doi: 10.1002/joc.1756

Author Information

  1. 1

    Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA

  2. 2

    U.K. Meteorological Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK

  3. 3

    Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna, Althanstrasse 14, A-1090, Vienna, Austria

  4. 4

    National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA

  5. 5

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08542, USA

  6. 6

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO 80305, USA

  7. 7

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Air Resources Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA

  8. 8

    Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK

  9. 9

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC 28801, USA

  10. 10

    Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA 95401, USA

  11. 11

    NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA

  12. 12

    Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520, USA

*Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA.

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 16 OCT 2008
  2. Article first published online: 10 OCT 2008
  3. Manuscript Accepted: 20 JUL 2008
  4. Manuscript Revised: 18 JUL 2008
  5. Manuscript Received: 25 MAR 2008

SEARCH

SEARCH BY CITATION

ARTICLE TOOLS

Get PDF (325K)

Keywords:

  • tropospheric temperature changes;
  • climate model evaluation;
  • statistical significance of trend differences;
  • tropical lapse rates;
  • differential warming of surface and temperature

Abstract

A recent report of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) identified a ‘potentially serious inconsistency’ between modelled and observed trends in tropical lapse rates (Karl et al., 2006). Early versions of satellite and radiosonde datasets suggested that the tropical surface had warmed more than the troposphere, while climate models consistently showed tropospheric amplification of surface warming in response to human-caused increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs). We revisit such comparisons here using new observational estimates of surface and tropospheric temperature changes. We find that there is no longer a serious discrepancy between modelled and observed trends in tropical lapse rates.

This emerging reconciliation of models and observations has two primary explanations. First, because of changes in the treatment of buoy and satellite information, new surface temperature datasets yield slightly reduced tropical warming relative to earlier versions. Second, recently developed satellite and radiosonde datasets show larger warming of the tropical lower troposphere. In the case of a new satellite dataset from Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), enhanced warming is due to an improved procedure of adjusting for inter-satellite biases. When the RSS-derived tropospheric temperature trend is compared with four different observed estimates of surface temperature change, the surface warming is invariably amplified in the tropical troposphere, consistent with model results. Even if we use data from a second satellite dataset with smaller tropospheric warming than in RSS, observed tropical lapse rate trends are not significantly different from those in all other model simulations.

Our results contradict a recent claim that all simulated temperature trends in the tropical troposphere and in tropical lapse rates are inconsistent with observations. This claim was based on use of older radiosonde and satellite datasets, and on two methodological errors: the neglect of observational trend uncertainties introduced by interannual climate variability, and application of an inappropriate statistical ‘consistency test’. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Get PDF (325K)