Research Article
You have full text access to this OnlineOpen article
Consistency of modelled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere
Article first published online: 10 OCT 2008
DOI: 10.1002/joc.1756
Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
Additional Information
How to Cite
Santer, B. D., Thorne, P. W., Haimberger, L., Taylor, K. E., Wigley, T. M. L., Lanzante, J. R., Solomon, S., Free, M., Gleckler, P. J., Jones, P. D., Karl, T. R., Klein, S. A., Mears, C., Nychka, D., Schmidt, G. A., Sherwood, S. C. and Wentz, F. J. (2008), Consistency of modelled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere. Int. J. Climatol., 28: 1703–1722. doi: 10.1002/joc.1756
Publication History
- Issue published online: 16 OCT 2008
- Article first published online: 10 OCT 2008
- Manuscript Accepted: 20 JUL 2008
- Manuscript Revised: 18 JUL 2008
- Manuscript Received: 25 MAR 2008
- Abstract
- References
- Supporting Information
- Cited By
References
- , 2007. Utility of radiosonde wind data in representing climatological variations of tropospheric temperature and baroclinicity in the western tropical Pacific. Journal of Climate, (in press).
- , 2008. Warming maximum in the tropical upper troposphere deduced from thermal winds. Nature Geoscience, (in press).
- , , , , 2006. Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new dataset from 1850. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: D12106, Doi:10.1029/2005JD006548.
- , , , 2007. Tropospheric temperature change since 1979 from tropical radiosonde and satellite measurements. Journal of Geophysical Research 112: D06102, Doi:10.1029/2005JD006881.
- , , 2000. MSU tropospheric temperatures: Data set construction and radiosonde comparisons. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 17: 1153–1170.
- , , , , 2003. Error estimates of version 5.0 of MSU/AMSU bulk atmospheric temperatures. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 20: 613–629.
- , , , 2007. A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions. International Journal of Climatology 27:Doi:10.1002/joc.1651.
- , , 2004. Altitude dependence of atmospheric temperature trends: Climate models versus observations. Geophysical Research Letters 31: L13208, Doi:10.1029/2004/GL020103.
- , , 2006. Overview of the integrated global radiosonde archive. Journal of Climate 19: 53–68.
- , , , 2007. Effects of ozone cooling in the tropical lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. Geophysical Research Letters 34: L23813, Doi:10.1029/2007GL031994.
- , 2006. Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from coupled climate model integrations. Journal of Climate 19: 6181–6194.
- , , , , , . 2005. Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC): A new dataset of large-area anomaly time series. Journal of Geophysical Research 110: D22101, Doi:10.1029/2005JD006169.
- , et al. 2000. Multi-decadal changes in the vertical temperature structure of the tropical troposphere. Science 287: 1239–1241.
- 2007. Homogenization of radiosonde temperature time series using innovation statistics. Journal of Climate 20: 1377–1403.
- , , 2008. Towards elimination of the warm bias in historic radiosonde temperature records—Some new results from a comprehensive intercomparison of upper air data. Journal of Climate, (in press).
- , et al. 2007. Understanding and attributing climate change. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, SolomonS, QinD, ManningM, ChenZ, MarquisM, AverytKB, TignorM, MillerHL (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, New York.
- IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 1996. Summary for policymakers. In Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, HoughtonJT, Meira FilhoLG, CallanderBA, HarrisN, KattenbergA, MaskellK (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, New York.
- IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2001. Summary for policymakers. In Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, HoughtonJT, DingY, GriggsDJ, NoguerM, van der LindenPJ, DaiX, MaskellK, JohnsonCA (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, New York.
- IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007. Summary for policymakers. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, SolomonS, QinD, ManningM, ChenZ, MarquisM, AverytKB, TignorM, MillerHL (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, New York.
- KarlTR, HassolSJ, MillerCD, MurrayWL (eds). 2006. Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center: Asheville, NC; 164.
- 2005. A cautionary note on the use of error bars. Journal of Climate 18: 3699–3703.
- 2007. Diagnosis of radiosonde vertical temperature trend profiles: Comparing the influence of data homogenization versus model forcings. Journal of Climate 20(21): 5356–5364.
- , , 2003. Temporal homogenization of monthly radiosonde temperature data. Part II: Trends, sensitivities, and MSU comparison. Journal of Climate 16: 241–262.
- , , , 2006. What do observations indicate about the change of temperatures in the atmosphere and at the surface since the advent of measuring temperatures vertically? In Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences, KarlTR, HassolSJ, MillerCD, MurrayWL (eds). A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington DC.
- , 1980. Sensitivity of a global climate model to an increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research 85: 5529–5554.
- , , , , , 2008. Assessing bias and uncertainty in the HadAT adjusted radiosonde climate record. Journal of Climate 21: 817–832.
- , , 2003. A reanalysis of the MSU channel 2 tropospheric temperature record. Journal of Climate 16: 3650–3664.
- , , , , 2006. What is our understanding of the contributions made by observational or methodological uncertainties to the previously-reported vertical differences in temperature trends? In Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences, KarlTR, HassolSJ, MillerCD, MurrayWL (eds). A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington DC.
- , , , , 2007. Relationship between temperature and precipitable water changes over tropical oceans. Geophysical Research Letters 34: L24709, Doi:10.1029/2007GL031936.
- , 2005. The effect of diurnal correction on satellite-derived lower tropospheric temperature. Science 309: 1548–1551.
- , et al. 2001. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes. In Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, MitchellJFB, KarolyDJ, HegerlGC, ZwiersFW, AllenMR, MarengoJ (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, New York; 881.
- NRC (National Research Council). 2000. Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. National Academy Press: Washington, DC; 85.
- , , , , 2004. Rapid disintegration of Alpine glaciers observed with satellite data. Geophysical Research Letters 31: L21402, Doi:10.1029/2004GL020816.
- , 2006. Biases in stratospheric and tropospheric temperature trends derived from historical radiosonde data. Journal of Climate 19: 2094–2104.
- , et al. 2003. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. Journal of Geophysical Research 108: 4407, Doi:10.1029/2002JD002670, HadISST1 data are available at http://www.hadobs.org/.
- , et al. 2006. Improved analyses of changes and uncertainties in marine temperature measured in situ since the mid-nineteenth century: The HadSST2 dataset. Journal of Climate 19: 446–469.
- , , 2006. How well can the observed vertical temperature changes be reconciled with our understanding of the causes of these changes? In Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences, KarlTR, HassolSJ, MillerCD, MurrayWL (eds). A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington DC.
- , , , 1996. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes. In Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, HoughtonJT, Meira FilhoLG, CallanderBA, HarrisN, KattenbergA, MaskellK (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, New York; 572.
- , et al. 1999. Uncertainties in observationally based estimates of temperature change in the free atmosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research 104: 6305–6333.
- , et al. 2000a. Statistical significance of trends and trend differences in layer-average atmospheric temperature time series. Journal of Geophysical Research 105: 7337–7356.
- , et al. 2000b. Interpreting differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere. Science 287: 1227–1232.
- , et al. 2001. Accounting for the effects of volcanoes and ENSO in comparisons of modeled and observed temperature trends. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 28033–28059.
- , et al. 2003. Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes. Science 301: 479–483.
- , et al. 2005. Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere. Science 309: 1551–1556.
- , et al. 2007. Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104: 15248–15253.
- , et al. 2004. Uncertainty in signals of large-scale climate variations in radiosonde and satellite upper-air temperature data sets. Journal of Climate 17: 2225–2240.
- 2007. Simultaneous detection of climate change and observing biases in a network with incomplete sampling. Journal of Climate 20: 4047–4062.
- , , 2005. Radiosonde daytime biases and late-20th century warming. Science 309: 1556–1559.
- , , , 2008. Robust tropospheric warming revealed by iteratively homogenized radiosonde data. Journal of Climate, early online release, Doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2320.1.
- 2001. Global warming: An insignificant trend? Science 292: 1063–1064.
- 2008. Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate: Summary for Policymakers of the Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, SingerSF (ed.). The Heartland Institute: Chicago, IL.
- , 2005. A global merged land and sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880–1997). Journal of Climate 18: 2021–2036.
- , , , 2008. Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006). Journal of Climate, (in press).
- , 1990. Precise monitoring of global temperature trends from satellites. Science 247: 1558–1562.
- , 1999. Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge; 484.
- , 1984. The interpretation and estimation of effective sample size. Journal of Meteorology and Applied Climatology 23: 800–811.
- , et al. 2005a. Uncertainties in climate trends: Lessons from upper-air temperature records. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86: 1437–1442.
- , et al. 2005b. Revisiting radiosonde upper-air temperatures from 1958 to 2002. Journal of Geophysical Research 110: D18105, Doi:10.1029/2004JD005753.
- , et al. 2007. Tropical vertical temperature trends: A real discrepancy? Geophysical Research Letters 34: L16702, Doi:10.1029/2007GL029875.
- , , , , , 2008. Critically reassessing tropospheric temperature trends from radiosondes using realistic validation experiments. Journal of Climate, early online release, Doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2419.1.
- , et al. 2007. Observations: Surface and atmospheric climate change. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, SolomonS, QinD, ManningM, ChenZ, MarquisM, AverytKB, TignorM, MillerHL (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, New York.
- , et al. 2005. The ERA-40 reanalysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 131: 2961–3012.Direct Link:
- , 2003. Global warming trend of mean tropospheric temperature observed by satellites. Science 302: 269–272.
- , et al. 2006. Temperature trends at the surface and the troposphere. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: D03106, Doi:10.1029/2005jd006392.
- , 1998. Effects of orbital decay on satellite-derived lower-tropospheric temperature trends. Nature 394: 661–664.
- , 2000. Precise climate monitoring using complementary satellite data sets. Nature 403: 414–416.
- 2006. Appendix A: Statistical issues regarding trends. In Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences, KarlTR, HassolSJ, MillerCD, MurrayWL (eds). A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington DC.
- , , , 2005. The effect of climate sensitivity on the response to volcanic forcing. Journal of Geophysical Research 110: D09107, Doi: 10.1029/2004/JD005557.
- 1995. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press: San Diego, CA; 467.
- , et al. 2006. Recalibration of Microwave Sounding Unit for climate studies using simultaneous nadir overpasses. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: D19114, Doi:10.1029/2005JD006798.
- , 1995. Taking serial correlation into account in tests of the mean. Journal of Climate 8: 336–351.

1097-0088/asset/JOC_centre.gif?v=1&s=392766b4fccfb001371ef9b7a825690a48ffca93)
1097-0088/asset/JOC_right.gif?v=1&s=0dac9618b2b4992612d732ba56fc6b92cb55979a)
1097-0088/asset/cover.gif?v=1&s=86bd20c4b9e235b31f03217ea75996a9b5386dc5)