Forecasting the vegetation photosynthetic activity over the Sahel: a Model Output Statistics approach
Article first published online: 4 DEC 2008
Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
International Journal of Climatology
Volume 29, Issue 10, pages 1463–1477, August 2009
How to Cite
Philippon, N., Martiny, N. and Camberlin, P. (2009), Forecasting the vegetation photosynthetic activity over the Sahel: a Model Output Statistics approach. Int. J. Climatol., 29: 1463–1477. doi: 10.1002/joc.1797
- Issue published online: 20 JUL 2009
- Article first published online: 4 DEC 2008
- Manuscript Accepted: 2 OCT 2008
- Manuscript Revised: 26 SEP 2008
- Manuscript Received: 5 APR 2007
- European Community's sixth Framework Research Program
- 2000. SST-induced climate change in tropical North Africa: the intermediary role of the lower tropospheric oscillations. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 75: 135–147. .
- 2007. Annual cycle of the mid-troposheric easterly jet over West Africa. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 90: 103–111. .
- 2005. Analysis of Sahelian vegetation dynamics using NOAA-AVHRR NDVI data from 1981–2003. Journal of Arid Environments 63: 596–614. , .
- 1987. Origins and levels of monthly and seasonal forecasts skill for United States surface temperatures determined by canonical correlation analysis. Monthly Weather Review 115: 1825–1850. , .
- 1992. Prediction of ENSO episodes using Canonical Correlation Analysis. Journal of Climate 5: 1316–1345. , .
- 1993. A degeneracy in cross-validated skill in regression-based forecasts. Journal of Climate 6: 963–977. , .
- 2005. GCL2000: a new approach to global land cover mapping from Earth observation data. International Journal of Remote Sensing 26: 1959–1977. , .
- 2008. Performance of DEMETER calibration for rainfall forecasting purposes: Application to the July–August Sahelian rainfall. Journal of Geophysical Research 113: D15111, DOI:10.1029/2007JD009403. , , , .
- 1992. An intercomparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in climate data. Journal of Climate 5: 541–560. , , .
- 2008. Using satellite remote sensing data in a spatially explicit price model: Vegetation dynamics and millet prices. Land Economics 84: 340–357, DOI:10.3368/le.84.2.340. , , .
- 2001. Seasonality and atmospheric dynamics of the teleconnection between African rainfall and tropical sea-surface temperature: Atlantic vs. ENSO. International Journal of Climatology 21: 973–1005. , , .
- 2007. Determinants of the interannual relationships between remote sensed photosynthetic activity and rainfall in tropical Africa. Remote Sensing of Environment 106: 199–216. , , , .
- 1999. Generation of the African Easterly Jet and its role in determining West African precipitation. Journal of Climate 12: 1165–1184. .
- 2002. Influence of soil moisture on the Asian and African Monsoons. Part II: interannual variability. Journal of Climate 15: 701–720. .
- 1988. Green biomass and rainfall in semi-arid sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Arid Environments 15: 245–252. , .
- 1991. The sensitivity of sub-Saharan precipitation to Atlantic SST. Climatic Change 18: 17–36. .
- 1992. GCM simulation of the Sahel 1984 drought with alternative specifications of observed SST. International Journal of Climatology 12: 521–526. , .
- 2003. Vegetation index trends for the African Sahel 1982–1999. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30(8): 1430, DOI:10.1029/2002GL016772, 2003. , .
- 1994. Assessing forecast skill through cross validation. Weather and Forecasting 9: 619–624. , .
- 1992. Wind-field coherence and its variations over West Africa. Journal of Climate 5: 512–524. , .
- 1996. Near-global sea surface temperature variability associated with West African anomaly types. Journal of Climate 9: 2935–2940. , .
- 1995. Rainfall anomaly patterns and wind field signals over West Africa in August (1958–1989). Journal of Climate 8: 1503–1510. , , .
- 2006. Intra-seasonal NDVI change projections in semi-arid Africa. Remote Sensing of Environment 101: 249–256. , .
- 2002. Prospects for improved seasonal predictions of monsoon precipitation over West Africa. International Journal of Climatology 22: 331–345. , , .
- 2003. Oceanic forcing of sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Science 302: 1027–1030. , , .
- 1997. On the use of NDVI for estimating rainfall fields in the Kalahari of Bostwana. Journal of Arid Environments 35: 195–214. , , .
- 1993. NDVI-crop monitoring and early yield assessment of Burkina Faso. International Journal of Remote Sensing 14: 1495–1515. .
- 1986. Contribution of remote sensing to food security and early warning systems in drought affected countries in Africa. In 7th Remote Sensing for Ressources Development and Environmental Management International Symposium, Rotterdam 25th August, 457–460. .
- 2005. Recent trends in vegetation dynamics in the African Sahel and their relationship to climate. Global Environmental Change 15: 394–404. , , .
- 2007. AVHRR derived phenological change in the Sahel and Soudan, Africa, 1982–2005. Remote Sensing of Environment 108: 385–392. , , , .
- 2005. Precipitation controls Sahel greening trend. Geophysical Research Letters 32: L21415, DOI:10.1029/ 2005GL024370. , , , , , , , .
- 1986. Oceanic conditions in the tropical Atlantic during 1983 and 1984. Nature 322: 243–245. , , , , .
- 2006. Detection and attribution of 20th century northern and southern African monsoon change. Journal of Climate 19: 3989–4008. , , , .
- 1991. Uses of satellite data for famine early warning in sub-Saharan Africa. International Journal of Remote Sensing 12: 1405–1421, DOI: 10.1080/01431169108929733. .
- 2006. Predictability of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in Kenya and potential applications as an indicator of Rift Valley fever outbreaks in the Greater Horn of Africa. Journal of Climate 19: 1673–1687. , , , , , .
- 1998. West African monsoon dynamics and the Eastern equatorial Atlantic and Pacific SST anomalies (1970–88). Journal of Climate 11: 1874–1882. , , , .
- 1996. Sahel droughts and ENSO dynamics. Geophysical Research Letters 23: 515–518. , , .
- 2001. Summer Sahel-ENSO teleconnection and decadal time scale SST variations. Climate Dynamics 18: 303–320. , , .
- 2005. Dominant patterns of AVHRR NDVI interannual variability over the Sahel and linkages with key climate signals (1982–2003). Geophys. Res. Lett. 32: L04701, DOI:10.1029/2004GL021841. , , , , .
- 2006. Response to the summer of 2003 Mediterranean SST anomalies over Europe and Africa. Journal of Climate 19: 5439–5454. , , .
- 1991. Synergism between NOAA-AVHRR and Meteosat data for studying vegetation development in semi-arid West Africa. International Journal of Remote Sensing 12: 1349–1368. , , , , .
- 1986. Monitoring the grasslands of the Sahel usinf NOAA/AVHRR data. International Journal of Remote Sensing 7: 1475–1498. , .
- 2002. NCEP-DEO AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83: 1631–1643. , , , , , , .
- 2002. Statistical recalibration of GCM forecasts over Southern Africa using model output statistics. Journal of Climate 15: 2038–2055. , .
- 2005.. IRI technical Report, 05-02: 16p. , .
- 1999. Climate and satellite indicators to forecast Rift Valley fever epidemics in Kenya. Science 285: 397–400. , , , , , .
- 1986. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature and rainfall variations in subsaharan Africa. Monthly Weather Review 114: 561–570. .
- 1990. A study of the rainfall and vegetation dynamics in the African Sahel using the normalised difference vegetation index. Journal of Arid Environments 19: 1–24. , .
- 2005. Interannual persistence effects in vegetation dynamics of semi-arid Africa. Geophysical Research Letters 32: L24403, DOI:10.1029/2005GL024634. , , .
- 2006. Compared regimes of NDVI and rainfall in semi-arid regions of Africa. International Journal of Remote Sensing 27: 5201–5223. , , , .
- 2008. Predictability of NDVI in semi-arid regions of Africa from oceano-atmospheric fields. Submitted to Journal of Climate. , , , .
- 1993. Environmental monitoring and crop forecasting in the Sahel through the use of NOAA NDVI data. A case study: Niger 1986–89. International Journal of Remote Sensing 14: 3471–3487. , , , .
- 2000. Processing of GAC NDVI data for yield forecasting in the Sahelian region. International Journal of Remote Sensing 21: 3509–3523. , , , .
- 2004. A new land-cover map of Africa for the year 2000. Journal of Biogeography 31: 861–877. , , , .
- 2006. Exploring the influence of ENSO on African vegetation variability using Multidimensional Map Algebra. GIScience and Remote Sensing 43: 352–376. .
- 1994. Guinean and Sahelian rainfall anomaly indices at annual and monthly scales (1933–1990). International Journal of Climatology 14: 325–341. .
- 2004. Simulation of a West-African monsoon index in four atmospheric general circulation models forced by prescribed sea surface temperature. J. Geophys. Res. 109: D24105, DOI:10.1029/2004JD004760. , , .
- 2001. Observed and SST-forced seasonal rainfall variability across tropical America. International Journal of Climatology 21: 1467–1501. , , .
- 2000. Representing twentieth century space-time climate variability. Part II: development of 1901–96 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate. Journal of Climate 13: 2217–2238. , , .
- 2005. On the question of the “recovery” of the rains in the West African Sahel. Journal of Arid Environments 63: 615–641. .
- 1990. A comparison of the vegetation response to rainfall in the Sahel and East Africa using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index from NOAA AVHRR. Climatic Change 17: 209–241. , , .
- 2005. A recent greening of the Sahel—trends, patterns and potential causes. Journal of Arid Environments 63: 556–566. , , .
- 2003. Seasonal forecast of sub-sahelian rainfall using cross validated model output statistics. Meteorologische Zeitschrift 12: 157–173. , .
- 2007. Characterization of the interannual and intraseasonal variability of West African vegetation between 1982 and 2002 by means of NOAA AVHRR NDVI data. Journal of Climate 20: 1202–1218. , , , , .
- 1996. Revised LEPS scores for assessing climate model simulations and long-range forecasts. Journal of Climate 9: 34–53. , , , .
- 2003. Teleconnections between Indian monsoon and Sahel rainfall and the Mediterranean. International Journal of Climatology 23: 173–186. , , .
- 1997. Operational yield forecast using AVHRR NDVI data: Reduction of environmental and inter-annual variability. International Journal of Remote Sensing 18: 1059–1077. .
- 2001. Teleconnections between the tropical Pacific and the Sahel. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 127: 1683–1706. .
- 2003. The impact of Mediterranean SSTs on the Sahelian rainfall season. Journal of Climate 16: 849–862. .
- 2003. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res. 108(D14): 4407, DOI: 10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003. , , , , , , , .
- 2005. An Extended AVHRR 8-km NDVI Data Set compatible with MODIS and SPOT Vegetation NDVI Data. International Journal of Remote Sensing 26: 4485–4498. .
- 1991. Expansion and contraction of the Sahara Desert between 1980 and 1990. Science 253: 299–301. , , .
- 1986. Monitoring the grasslands of the Sahel 1984–1985. International Journal of Remote Sensing 7: 1571–1581. , , .
- 1994. Searching for analogues, how long must we wait? Tellus 46A: 314–324. .
- 1991. Prediction of seasonal rainfall in North Nordeste Brasil using eigenvectors of sea surface temperature. International Journal of Climatology 11: 711–743. , .
- 2006. In Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, DmowskaR, HartmannD, RossbyHT (eds). Elsevier: San Diego, CA; 627. .
- 1991. Satellite and ground-based pasture production assessment in Niger: 1986–1988. International Journal of Remote Sensing 12: 1281–1300, DOI: 10.1080/01431169108929726. , , .