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Research Article
Reconstruction of river runoff to the Baltic Sea, AD 1500–1995
Article first published online: 22 FEB 2010
DOI: 10.1002/joc.2097
Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society
Additional Information
How to Cite
Hansson, D., Eriksson, C., Omstedt, A. and Chen, D. (2011), Reconstruction of river runoff to the Baltic Sea, AD 1500–1995. International Journal of Climatology, 31: 696–703. doi: 10.1002/joc.2097
Publication History
- Issue published online: 22 FEB 2010
- Article first published online: 22 FEB 2010
- Manuscript Accepted: 6 JAN 2010
- Manuscript Revised: 1 DEC 2009
- Manuscript Received: 28 APR 2009
Funded by
- University of Gothenburg
- Swedish Research Council. Grant Number: G 600-335/2001
- Abstract
- Article
- References
- Cited By
Keywords:
- Baltic Sea;
- river runoff;
- climate reconstruction;
- climate change;
- atmospheric circulation;
- statistical analysis;
- freshwater
Abstract
In this paper we reconstructed river runoff to the Baltic Sea since 1500 using temperature and atmospheric circulation indices, showing the important atmospheric processes for river runoff in different regions. Runoff appears to be strongly linked to temperature, wind and rotational circulation components in the northern region and Gulf of Finland, but more associated with rotational and deformation circulation components in the south. No significant long-term change has been detected in total river runoff to the Baltic Sea for 500 years, although decadal and regional variability is large. Analysis of runoff sensitivity to temperature shows that the south region may become drier with rising air temperatures. This is in contrast to the north region and Gulf of Finland where warmer temperatures are associated with more river runoff. Over the past 500 years the total river runoff to the Baltic Sea has decreased by 3% (450 m3/s) per degree Celsius increase. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society