Short Communication

Air flow and stability indices in GCM future and control runs

  1. J. A. Hanafin1,2,3,*,
  2. R. McGrath2,
  3. T. Semmler2,
  4. S. Wang2,
  5. P. Lynch1,
  6. S. Steele-Dunne1,4,
  7. P. Nolan1

Article first published online: 19 APR 2010

DOI: 10.1002/joc.2125

Issue

International Journal of Climatology

International Journal of Climatology

Volume 31, Issue 8, pages 1240–1247, 30 June 2011

Additional Information

How to Cite

Hanafin, J. A., McGrath, R., Semmler, T., Wang, S., Lynch, P., Steele-Dunne, S. and Nolan, P. (2011), Air flow and stability indices in GCM future and control runs. Int. J. Climatol., 31: 1240–1247. doi: 10.1002/joc.2125

Author Information

  1. 1

    School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland

  2. 2

    Met Éireann, Glasnevin, Dublin 9, Ireland

  3. 3

    Environmental Change Institute/School of Physics, National University of Ireland, Galway, Ireland

  4. 4

    Water Resources Section, Faculty Civil Engineering & Geoscience, Delft University of Technology, Postbus 5048, NL-2600 GA Delft, Netherlands

*Environmental Change Institute/School of Physics, National University of Ireland, Galway, University Road, Ireland.

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 19 APR 2010
  2. Article first published online: 19 APR 2010
  3. Manuscript Accepted: 9 FEB 2010
  4. Manuscript Revised: 23 DEC 2009
  5. Manuscript Received: 31 DEC 2007

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Keywords:

  • regional climate change;
  • climate change modeling;
  • general circulation models;
  • atmospheric stability;
  • Ireland;
  • synoptic scale circulation patterns

Abstract

Indices have been used as indicators of synoptic-scale flow strength, shear vorticity, flow direction and static stability over Ireland and Britain. Changes in large-scale dynamic flow and static stability over the European region are expected because of shifting climate patterns, and investigation of how these indices change in future runs of global climate models allows us to estimate how this will affect storm frequency and intensity in the region. Analysis of frequency distributions shows an increase in westerly flows and decreases in most other flow directions, indicating an increase in rainfall for the region. The flow strength on days with strong winds increases in the future runs, as does the number of gale days. The future runs show not only an overall increase in atmospheric stability but also significantly larger areas with stronger instability during periods of extreme instability. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

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