Research Article

Links between tropical indices and southern Australian rainfall

  1. Ian N. Smith1,*,
  2. Bertrand Timbal2

Article first published online: 9 DEC 2010

DOI: 10.1002/joc.2251

Issue

International Journal of Climatology

International Journal of Climatology

Volume 32, Issue 1, pages 33–40, January 2012

Additional Information

How to Cite

Smith, I. N. and Timbal, B. (2012), Links between tropical indices and southern Australian rainfall. Int. J. Climatol., 32: 33–40. doi: 10.1002/joc.2251

Author Information

  1. 1

    Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Melbourne, Australia

  2. 2

    Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia

*CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC 3195, Australia.

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 3 JAN 2012
  2. Article first published online: 9 DEC 2010
  3. Manuscript Accepted: 7 OCT 2010
  4. Manuscript Revised: 7 JUN 2010
  5. Manuscript Received: 12 JAN 2010

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Keywords:

  • SSTs;
  • rainfall;
  • Australian;
  • trends;
  • DMI;
  • regression;
  • ENSO

Abstract

Links between southern Australian rainfall totals and tropical indices are investigated with the aim of identifying potential explanations for observed trends over the period 1950–2008. We find that, as has been noted in many previous studies, fluctuations in Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies do not explain significantly more of interannual rainfall fluctuations than other indices which are dominated by El Nino Southern Oscillation events. It is proposed that a composite index, capturing SST variations in the Indian Ocean, the seas to the north of Australia, and the Pacific Ocean may be more useful in studying interannual variability. We also find that, while most indices can be significantly linked to rainfall fluctuations on interannual time scales, these links do not adequately describe the long-term trends. This suggests that the drivers of long-term trends in southern Australian rainfall do not involve the tropical oceans so much as changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

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