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Stratospheric aerosols and sea-surface temperatures

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Abstract

Superposed-epoch analyses show statistically significant warming and cooling of the East Tropical Pacific Ocean a few seasons after major low-latitude and high-latitude volcanic eruptions respectively, confirming the results of Handler (1986a). The statistical significance of the results is confirmed by a Monte Carlo sampling technique which takes account of pre-eruption changes in the oceanic temperatures, and the results are only slightly sensitive to the selection of eruptions. Occasional sequences of extreme temperatures in the random samples underline the need for numerical modelling studies to complement the statistical investigations.

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