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Model biases in long coupled runs of NCEP CFS in the context of Indian summer monsoon

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Abstract

This study examines the performance of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) over the Indian monsoon region in 100 years long coupled run, in terms of biases of sea surface temperature (SST), rainfall and circulation. The study further explores the role of the feedback processes in maintaining these biases. The model simulates reasonable monsoon climatology during JJAS (June–September). It shows dry (wet) rainfall bias concomitant with cold (warm) SST bias over east (west) equatorial Indian Ocean. These biases of SST and rainfall affect both lower- and upper-level circulations in a feedback process, which in turn regulates the SST and rainfall biases by maintaining a coupled feedback process. A dry (wet) rainfall bias over east (west) Indian Ocean induces anomalous low level easterlies over tropical Indian Ocean and causes cold SST bias over east Indian Ocean by triggering evaporation and warm SST bias over west Indian Ocean through advection of warm waters. The persistent SST bias retains the zonal asymmetric heating and meridional temperature gradient resulting in a circum-global subtropical westerly jet core, which in turn magnifies the mid-latitude disturbances and decreases the Mascarene high. The decreased Mascarene high diminishes the strength of monsoon cross-equatorial flow and results in less upwelling as compared to that in the observation. It further increases the SST bias over the West Indian Ocean. The coupled interaction among SST, rainfall and circulation works in tandem through a closed feedback loop to maintain the model biases over tropical Indian Ocean. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

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