Projected changes in wind speed over the Republic of Korea under A1B climate change scenario



In this study, an attempt was made to investigate a future wind-speed change over the Republic of Korea using a mesoscale weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. We presented dynamically downscaled wind fields and the physical processes that derived the surface wind changes. A double-nested WRF model within the global-scale scenario from the fifth generation of the ECHAM general-circulation model (ECHAM5) was integrated for the present-day (the late 20th century, 1990–1999) and future (the mid-21st century, 2045–2054) wind climate. The ensemble mean of the simulated results for the sensitivity of planetary boundary-layer physics provided a relative advantage in determining synoptic and surface fields. A reasonable and realistic wind climatology, influenced by the asymmetric heating of land and sea, was identified over the East Asian monsoon region. The observed spatial and temporal distributions of temperature and wind speed were also reproduced well by the mesoscale simulations. Projected wind-speed changes at 80 m above ground level varied from –9.53 to 29.80% depending on the location and season. [Correction added 3 March 2014 after original online publication: in the preceding sentence ‘9.53’ has been corrected to ‘–9.53’.] The strong wind speed in the cold season decreased (–5.45%), whereas the weak wind speed in the warm season increased (4.54%). A possible cause of the weakened and strengthened winds in cold and warm seasons, respectively, is shown to be the effects in the lower-tropospheric pressure-gradient force accompanied by pronounced warming.