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joc3899-sup-0001-FigureS1.pdfPDF document43KFigure S1. Time series of annual percentile indices calculated from the historical simulations of the CMIP5 model ensemble mean (black) and from GHCNDEX (green), ERA40 (blue) and NCEP1 (red). The shading indicates the interquartile ensemble spread (range between the 25th and 75th quantiles). Displayed are global area-weighted averages over grid boxes with sufficient data coverage (at least 29 of 30 years) in GHCNDEX data set from 1961 to 1990.
joc3899-sup-0002-FigureS2.pdfPDF document191KFigure S2. Annual cycle of (a, c) daily maximum temperature (TX) and (b, d) daily minimum temperature (TN) for the mean and the 10th and 90th percentile of 18 CMIP5 models (black), ERA40 (blue), NCEP1 (red) and the GHCN-Daily (green) observational dataset. The original annual cycles of TX and TN are shown in (a) and (b), respectively, and the annual cycles bias-corrected with respect to mean annual cycle of GHCN-Daily are shown in (c) and (d), respectively. The shadings indicate the inter-quartile model range (25–75%) while thicker coloured lines indicate the multi-model means. The numbers in the legend indicate the annual mean bias as compared to GHCN-Daily and numbers on the right hand side of the plot indicate the mean inter-quartile range.
joc3899-sup-0003-FigureS3.pdfPDF document733KFigure S3. Temporal average of percentile indices for December, January, February (DJF) in 1961–1990 from the CMIP5 ensemble mean (left), ERA40 (middle) and NCEP1 (right) based on temperatures bias corrected with GHCN-Daily. Displayed are the differences [in %] between the bias-corrected model mean or reanalyses and the respective GHCNDEX index. White areas over land indicate missing data in the respective GHCNDEX index. The observational means are, by construction, approx. 10% averaged over 1961–1990. The upper end of the color scale, thus, indicates multi-model mean threshold exceedance rate that is more than 100% greater (double) than the rate in the reference dataset, while the lower end of the scale indicates exceedance rates that are about half of the nominal 10% rate.
joc3899-sup-0004-FigureS4.pdfPDF document722KFigure S4. Same as Fig. S3, but for June, July, August (JJA).
joc3899-sup-0005-FigureS5.pdfPDF document526KFigure S5. Same as Fig. S3, but for annual percentile indices (ANN).
joc3899-sup-0006-TableS1.pdfPDF document33KTable S1. CMIP5 models as available from the Earth System Grid (http://www.earthsystemgrid.org). Only the first ensemble member of each model has been used for the analyses.

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