Analyses of trends in air temperature in the United Kingdom using gridded data series from 1910 to 2011
Article first published online: 6 MAR 2014
© 2014 Crown Copyright, Met Office International Journal of Climatology © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society
International Journal of Climatology
Volume 34, Issue 14, pages 3766–3779, 30 November 2014
How to Cite
Prior, M. J. and Perry, M. C. (2014), Analyses of trends in air temperature in the United Kingdom using gridded data series from 1910 to 2011. Int. J. Climatol., 34: 3766–3779. doi: 10.1002/joc.3944
- Issue published online: 12 NOV 2014
- Article first published online: 6 MAR 2014
- Manuscript Accepted: 7 JAN 2014
- Manuscript Revised: 3 JAN 2014
- Manuscript Received: 24 MAY 2013
- climate trends;
- gridded data;
- United Kingdom;
Gridded temperature datasets covering the UK at 5 km × 5 km resolution have been analysed for temporal and spatial patterns of change and variability. Decadal-scale variability is visualized by smoothing the data series using a kernel smoother. Trends have been analysed by comparing averages for a baseline period with averages for a recent period, as well as using linear regression. Spatial patterns of change have been mapped by calculating trends for each grid point.
Monthly gridded datasets of daily maximum, minimum and mean air temperatures are available from 1910 to date. These show statistically significant increases for all parts of the UK, with the rate of change increasing from the north and west to the south and east. Seasonally, the least significant changes have occurred in the winter, with significant increases for most districts for all of the other seasons.
Derived indices based on daily temperature are available from 1961 onwards. There have been significant decreases in heating degree days and increases in growing degree days for all districts, while changes in cooling degree days are less significant as the values are low and inter-annual variability dominates. There have been significant decreases in frost days, especially in spring and autumn, and this is linked to significant increases in growing season length, especially for Scotland.