Dynamical seasonal predictability of the Arctic Oscillation using a CGCM

Authors

  • Jianqi Sun,

    1. Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre (NZC), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
    2. Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University, South Korea
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  • Joong-Bae Ahn

    Corresponding author
    1. Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University, South Korea
    • Correspondence to: J.-B. Ahn, Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University, Pusan 609735, South Korea. E-mail: jbahn@pusan.ac.kr

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ABSTRACT

The potential dynamical predictability of the winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) is investigated using the ensemble hindcast from the Pusan National University coupled general circulation model (PNU-CGCM) over the 30-year period of 1981–2010. The analysis indicates that PNU-CGCM can not only reproduce the spatial distribution of the AO but also significantly simulate the AO's temporal variability. In addition, the coupled model performs well in terms of predicting the AO's impact on the Northern Hemisphere winter climate. These results reveal the coupled model's potential for dynamical forecasting of the climate over the mid-latitude to high latitude.

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