Research Article

# Do global warming-induced circulation pattern changes affect temperature and precipitation over Europe during summer?

Article first published online: 17 JUN 2014

DOI: 10.1002/joc.4070

© 2014 Royal Meteorological Society

Issue

## International Journal of Climatology

Early View (Online Version of Record published before inclusion in an issue)

Additional Information

#### How to Cite

Belleflamme, A., Fettweis, X. and Erpicum, M. (2014), Do global warming-induced circulation pattern changes affect temperature and precipitation over Europe during summer?. Int. J. Climatol.. doi: 10.1002/joc.4070

#### Publication History

- Article first published online: 17 JUN 2014
- Manuscript Accepted: 9 MAY 2014
- Manuscript Revised: 8 MAY 2014
- Manuscript Received: 22 MAY 2013

- Abstract
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- References
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Filename | Format | Size | Description |
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joc4070-sup-0001-FigureS1.pdf | PDF document | 136K | Figure S1. The dots represent the yearly GCM frequencies (after a 10-year running mean) as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the historical experiment (1951–2005) and the future projection RCP4.5 experiment (2006–2100). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type (see the determination coefficients). The ERA-40 reference frequencies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red. |

joc4070-sup-0002-FigureS2.pdf | PDF document | 187K | Figure S2. The dots represent the yearly GCM SLP anomaly (with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean and after a 10-year running mean) as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the historical experiment (1951–2005) and the future projection RCP4.5 experiment (2006–2100). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type and the total yearly mean (see the determination coefficients). (*) indicates that the slope is significantly different from the (black) total slope following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. The ERA-40 reference SLP anomalies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red, Total = black. |

joc4070-sup-0003-FigureS3.pdf | PDF document | 162K | Figure S3. The dots represent the yearly GCM TAS anomaly (with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean and after a 10-year running mean) as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the historical experiment (1951–2005) and the future projection RCP4.5 experiment (2006–2100). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type and the total yearly mean (see the determination coefficients). (*) indicates that the slope is significantly different from the (black) total slope following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. The ERA-40 reference TAS anomalies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red, Total = black. |

joc4070-sup-0004-FigureS4.pdf | PDF document | 192K | Figure S4. The dots represent the yearly GCM PR anomaly (with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean and after a 10-year running mean) as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the historical experiment (1951–2005) and the future projection RCP4.5 experiment (2006–2100). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type and the total yearly mean (see the determination coefficients). (*) indicates that the slope is significantly different from the (black) total slope following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. The ERA-40 reference PR anomalies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red. Total = black. |

joc4070-sup-0005-FigureS5.pdf | PDF document | 773K | Figure S5. For each GCM, the yearly frequencies (after a 10-year running mean) are represented as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the historical experiment (1951–2005 – circles) and the future projection RCP4.5 experiment (2006–2100 – crosses). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type (see the determination coefficients). The ERA-40 reference frequencies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. (°) indicates that the slope is not significantly different from 0 following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red. |

joc4070-sup-0006-FigureS6.pdf | PDF document | 1039K | Figure S6. For each GCM, the yearly SLP anomaly (with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean and after a 10-year running mean) is represented as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the historical experiment (1951–2005 – circles) and the future projection RCP4.5 experiment (2006–2100 – crosses). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type and the total yearly mean (see the determination coefficients). (*) indicates that the slope is significantly different from the (black) total slope following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. (°) indicates that the slope is not significantly different from 0 following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. The ERA-40 reference SLP anomalies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red, Total = black. |

joc4070-sup-0007-FigureS7.pdf | PDF document | 1077K | Figure S7. For each GCM, the yearly TAS anomaly (with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean and after a 10- year running mean) is represented as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the Historical experiment (1951–2005 – circles) and the future projection RCP4.5 experiment (2006–2100 – crosses). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type and the total yearly mean (see the determination coefficients). (*) indicates that the slope is significantly different from the (black) total slope following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. (°) indicates that the slope is not significantly different from 0 following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. The ERA-40 reference TAS anomalies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red, Total = black. |

joc4070-sup-0008-FigureS8.pdf | PDF document | 1054K | Figure S8. For each GCM, the yearly PR anomaly (with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean and after a 10-year running mean) is represented as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the Historical experiment (1951–2005 –circles) and the future projection RCP4.5 experiment (2006–2100 – crosses). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type and the total yearly mean (see the determination coefficients). (*) indicates that the slope is significantly different from the (black) total slope following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. (°) indicates that the slope is not significantly different from 0 following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. The ERA-40 reference PR anomalies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red, Total = black. |

joc4070-sup-0009-FigureS9.pdf | PDF document | 793K | Figure S9. For each GCM, the yearly frequencies (after a 10-year running mean) are represented as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the Historical experiment (1951–2005 – circles) and the future projection RCP8.5 experiment (2006–2100 – crosses). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type (see the determination coefficients). The ERA-40 reference frequencies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. (°) indicates that the slope is not significantly different from 0 following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red. |

joc4070-sup-0010-FigureS10.pdf | PDF document | 1095K | Figure S10. For each GCM, the yearly SLP anomaly (with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean and after a 10-year running mean) is represented as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the Historical experiment (1951–2005 – circles) and the future projection RCP8.5 experiment (2006–2100 – crosses). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type and the total yearly mean (see the determination coefficients). (*) indicates that the slope is significantly different from the (black) total slope following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. (°) indicates that the slope is not significantly different from 0 following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. The ERA-40 reference SLP anomalies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red, Total = black. |

joc4070-sup-0011-FigureS11.pdf | PDF document | 1183K | Figure S11. For each GCM, the yearly TAS anomaly (with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean and after a 10- year running mean) is represented as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the Historical experiment (1951–2005 – circles) and the future projection RCP8.5 experiment (2006–2100 – crosses). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type and the total yearly mean (see the determination coefficients). (*) indicates that the slope is significantly different from the (black) total slope following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. (°) indicates that the slope is not significantly different from 0 following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. The ERA-40 reference TAS anomalies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red, Total = black. |

joc4070-sup-0012-FigureS12.pdf | PDF document | 1110K | Figure S12. For each GCM, the yearly PR anomaly (with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean and after a 10-year running mean) is represented as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the Historical experiment (1951–2005 – circles) and the future projection RCP8.5 experiment (2006–2100 – crosses). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type and the total yearly mean (see the determination coefficients). (*) indicates that the slope is significantly different from the (black) total slope following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. (°) indicates that the slope is not significantly different from 0 following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. The ERA-40 reference PR anomalies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red, Total = black. |

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