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joc4070-sup-0001-FigureS1.pdfPDF document136KFigure S1. The dots represent the yearly GCM frequencies (after a 10-year running mean) as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the historical experiment (1951–2005) and the future projection RCP4.5 experiment (2006–2100). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type (see the determination coefficients). The ERA-40 reference frequencies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red.
joc4070-sup-0002-FigureS2.pdfPDF document187KFigure S2. The dots represent the yearly GCM SLP anomaly (with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean and after a 10-year running mean) as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the historical experiment (1951–2005) and the future projection RCP4.5 experiment (2006–2100). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type and the total yearly mean (see the determination coefficients). (*) indicates that the slope is significantly different from the (black) total slope following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. The ERA-40 reference SLP anomalies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red, Total = black.
joc4070-sup-0003-FigureS3.pdfPDF document162KFigure S3. The dots represent the yearly GCM TAS anomaly (with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean and after a 10-year running mean) as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the historical experiment (1951–2005) and the future projection RCP4.5 experiment (2006–2100). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type and the total yearly mean (see the determination coefficients). (*) indicates that the slope is significantly different from the (black) total slope following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. The ERA-40 reference TAS anomalies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red, Total = black.
joc4070-sup-0004-FigureS4.pdfPDF document192KFigure S4. The dots represent the yearly GCM PR anomaly (with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean and after a 10-year running mean) as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the historical experiment (1951–2005) and the future projection RCP4.5 experiment (2006–2100). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type and the total yearly mean (see the determination coefficients). (*) indicates that the slope is significantly different from the (black) total slope following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. The ERA-40 reference PR anomalies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red. Total = black.
joc4070-sup-0005-FigureS5.pdfPDF document773KFigure S5. For each GCM, the yearly frequencies (after a 10-year running mean) are represented as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the historical experiment (1951–2005 – circles) and the future projection RCP4.5 experiment (2006–2100 – crosses). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type (see the determination coefficients). The ERA-40 reference frequencies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. (°) indicates that the slope is not significantly different from 0 following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red.
joc4070-sup-0006-FigureS6.pdfPDF document1039KFigure S6. For each GCM, the yearly SLP anomaly (with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean and after a 10-year running mean) is represented as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the historical experiment (1951–2005 – circles) and the future projection RCP4.5 experiment (2006–2100 – crosses). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type and the total yearly mean (see the determination coefficients). (*) indicates that the slope is significantly different from the (black) total slope following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. (°) indicates that the slope is not significantly different from 0 following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. The ERA-40 reference SLP anomalies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red, Total = black.
joc4070-sup-0007-FigureS7.pdfPDF document1077KFigure S7. For each GCM, the yearly TAS anomaly (with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean and after a 10- year running mean) is represented as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the Historical experiment (1951–2005 – circles) and the future projection RCP4.5 experiment (2006–2100 – crosses). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type and the total yearly mean (see the determination coefficients). (*) indicates that the slope is significantly different from the (black) total slope following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. (°) indicates that the slope is not significantly different from 0 following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. The ERA-40 reference TAS anomalies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red, Total = black.
joc4070-sup-0008-FigureS8.pdfPDF document1054KFigure S8. For each GCM, the yearly PR anomaly (with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean and after a 10-year running mean) is represented as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the Historical experiment (1951–2005 –circles) and the future projection RCP4.5 experiment (2006–2100 – crosses). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type and the total yearly mean (see the determination coefficients). (*) indicates that the slope is significantly different from the (black) total slope following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. (°) indicates that the slope is not significantly different from 0 following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. The ERA-40 reference PR anomalies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red, Total = black.
joc4070-sup-0009-FigureS9.pdfPDF document793KFigure S9. For each GCM, the yearly frequencies (after a 10-year running mean) are represented as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the Historical experiment (1951–2005 – circles) and the future projection RCP8.5 experiment (2006–2100 – crosses). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type (see the determination coefficients). The ERA-40 reference frequencies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. (°) indicates that the slope is not significantly different from 0 following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red.
joc4070-sup-0010-FigureS10.pdfPDF document1095KFigure S10. For each GCM, the yearly SLP anomaly (with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean and after a 10-year running mean) is represented as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the Historical experiment (1951–2005 – circles) and the future projection RCP8.5 experiment (2006–2100 – crosses). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type and the total yearly mean (see the determination coefficients). (*) indicates that the slope is significantly different from the (black) total slope following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. (°) indicates that the slope is not significantly different from 0 following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. The ERA-40 reference SLP anomalies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red, Total = black.
joc4070-sup-0011-FigureS11.pdfPDF document1183KFigure S11. For each GCM, the yearly TAS anomaly (with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean and after a 10- year running mean) is represented as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the Historical experiment (1951–2005 – circles) and the future projection RCP8.5 experiment (2006–2100 – crosses). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type and the total yearly mean (see the determination coefficients). (*) indicates that the slope is significantly different from the (black) total slope following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. (°) indicates that the slope is not significantly different from 0 following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. The ERA-40 reference TAS anomalies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red, Total = black.
joc4070-sup-0012-FigureS12.pdfPDF document1110KFigure S12. For each GCM, the yearly PR anomaly (with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean and after a 10-year running mean) is represented as a function of the total TAS change with regard to the JJA 1960–1999 mean using the Historical experiment (1951–2005 – circles) and the future projection RCP8.5 experiment (2006–2100 – crosses). A linear regression line for the CMIP5 ensemble mean is plotted for each type and the total yearly mean (see the determination coefficients). (*) indicates that the slope is significantly different from the (black) total slope following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. (°) indicates that the slope is not significantly different from 0 following a Student's t-test at a 5% confidence level. The ERA-40 reference PR anomalies (JJA, 1960–1999) are represented by the dashed lines. Colours: Type 1 = blue, Type 2 = green, Type 3 = red, Total = black.

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