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Research Article
The cause of warming over Norway in the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GHG integration
Article first published online: 22 FEB 2001
DOI: 10.1002/joc.603
Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society
1097-0088/asset/cover.gif?v=1&s=86bd20c4b9e235b31f03217ea75996a9b5386dc5 "International Journal of Climatology")
Additional Information
How to Cite
Benestad, R. E. (2001), The cause of warming over Norway in the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GHG integration. International Journal of Climatology, 21: 371–387. doi: 10.1002/joc.603
Publication History
- Issue published online: 30 MAR 2001
- Article first published online: 22 FEB 2001
- Manuscript Accepted: 1 AUG 2000
- Manuscript Revised: 14 JUL 2000
- Manuscript Received: 29 SEP 1999
Funded by
- The Norwegian Research Council. Grant Number: Contract NRC-No 120656/720
- The Norwegian Meteorological Institute
- Abstract
- References
- Cited By
Keywords:
- climate change;
- coupled global climate model;
- correlation;
- canonical correlation analysis;
- historical observations;
- North Atlantic Oscillation;
- Norway;
- regression
Abstract
The cause of warming over Norway in a future global climate model (GCM) scenario is examined. Analysis of historical observations indicate that the observed long-term temperature trends are not a result of systematic shifts in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The GCM prediction of past and future warming cannot be explained in terms of changes to the large-scale atmospheric flow. The climate model results may suggest that the model has a seasonal bias with respect to the time of the year when the fastest warming occurs.
The NAO is associated with the warming after 1970, even though the 1860–1997 temperature trends do not appear to be connected with the NAO. An accurate description of the NAO is, therefore, critical for forecasting short-term variability in the Norwegian winter climate and the results obtained here suggest that the model description of the NAO is generally good. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society.