Transient climate simulation forced by natural and anthropogenic climate forcings
Article first published online: 24 MAY 2002
Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society
International Journal of Climatology
Volume 22, Issue 6, pages 623–648, May 2002
How to Cite
Bertrand, C. and Ypersele, J.-P. v. (2002), Transient climate simulation forced by natural and anthropogenic climate forcings. Int. J. Climatol., 22: 623–648. doi: 10.1002/joc.738
- Issue published online: 24 MAY 2002
- Article first published online: 24 MAY 2002
- Manuscript Accepted: 5 OCT 2001
- Manuscript Revised: 25 SEP 2001
- Manuscript Received: 2 MAR 2001
- Belgian State, Prime Minister's Services, Science Policy Office. Grant Number: CG/DD/242
- transient climate simulations;
- natural and anthropogenic climate forcings;
- emission scenarios
Numerical experiments have been carried out with a two-dimensional sector-averaged global climate model coupled to a diffusive ocean in order to assess the potential impact of four hypothesized mechanisms of decadal to century-scale climate variability, both natural and anthropogenically induced: (1) solar variability; (2) variability in volcanic aerosol loading of the atmosphere; (3) anthropogenic increase of sulphate aerosols' concentration; (4) anthropogenic increase of greenhouse gas concentrations.
Our results suggest that neither the individual responses nor the combined natural or anthropogenic forcings allow one to reproduce all of the recorded major temperature fluctuations since the latter half of the 19th century. They show that these temperature variations are the result of both naturally driven climate fluctuations and the effects of industrialization.
By contrast, the dominant cause of decade-to-century-scale variability of the 21st century is likely to be changes in atmospheric trace-gas concentrations. Indeed, when the solar, volcanic, and tropospheric aerosols forcings used in our experiments are extended into the future, they are unable to counter the expected greenhouse warming. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.