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Research Article
What makes a blockbuster? Economic analysis of film success in the United Kingdom
Article first published online: 27 AUG 2002
DOI: 10.1002/mde.1069
Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
1099-1468/asset/cover.gif?v=1&s=083f303f2ef1fa3282ed72b86a56b91026b531c1 "Managerial and Decision Economics")
Additional Information
How to Cite
Collins, A., Hand, C. and Snell, M. C. (2002), What makes a blockbuster? Economic analysis of film success in the United Kingdom. Managerial and Decision Economics, 23: 343–354. doi: 10.1002/mde.1069
Publication History
- Issue published online: 27 AUG 2002
- Article first published online: 27 AUG 2002
- Abstract
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Abstract
In this paper, we attempt to evaluate whether a film's commercial performance can be forecast. The statistical distribution of film revenues in the UK is examined and found to have unbounded variance. This undermines much of the existing work relating a film's performance to its identifiable attributes within an OLS model. We adopt De Vany and Walls' approach and transform the revenue data into a binary variable and estimate the probability that a film's revenue will exceed a given threshold value; in other words, the probability of a blockbuster. Furthermore, we provide a sensitivity analysis around these threshold values. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.