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Keywords:

  • sub-annual maxima;
  • n-day maxima;
  • Method of Independent Storms;
  • Peak-over-threshold;
  • Poisson process;
  • Weibull distribution;
  • Fisher Tippett Type 1 distribution;
  • mixed climates

Abstract

This paper consolidates recent advances in methodologies in extreme-value analysis of wind speeds by using sub-annual maxima in conjunction with exact and penultimate extreme-value models. By avoiding asymptotic models and the associated issues of asymptotic convergence, the consolidated methodology is able to extend analysis further into the lower tail, greatly increasing the statistical confidence. The standard error in design predictions of dynamic pressure is reduced to less than a third of the corresponding standard error from annual maxima. The methodology is demonstrated by re-analysing wind speed data from previously published studies at sites in simple and in various mixed-mechanism climates. Copyright © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society