SEARCH

SEARCH BY CITATION

References

  • Arribas A, Robertson KB, Mylne KR. 2005. Test of a poor man's ensemble for short-range probability forecasting. Monthly Weather Review 133: 18251839.
  • Baker E. 1995. Public response to hurricane probability forecasts. The Professional Geographer 2: 137147.
  • Bálint G, Csík A, Bartha P, Gauzer B, Bonta I. 2006. Application for meteorological ensembles for Danube flood forecasting and warning. In Transboundary Floods: Reducing Risk through Flood Management, NATO Science Series IV: Earth and Environmental Sciences, MarsalekJ, StancalieG and BálintG (eds), Vol. 72. Springer: Dordrecht; 5767.
  • Bartholmes J, Thielen J, Ramos M, Gentilini S. 2009. The European flood alert system EFAS—Part 2: statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2: 141153.
  • Broad K, Leiserowitz A, Weinkle J, Steketee M. 2007. Misinterpretations of the “cone of uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 hurricane season. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society 88: 651667.
  • Buizza R. 2008. The value of probabilistic prediction. Atmospheric Science Letters 9: 3642.
  • Buizza R, Bidlot J-R, Wedi N, Fuentes M, Hamrud M, Holt G, Vitart F. 2007. The new ECMWF VAREPS (Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System). Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 133: 681695.
  • Buizza R, Houtekamer PL, Toth Z, Pellerin G, Wei M, Zhu Y. 2005. A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems. Monthly Weather Review 133: 10761097.
  • Cloke HL, Pappenberger F. 2009. Ensemble flood forecasting: a review. Journal of Hydrology 375: 613626.
  • Cloke HL, Thielen J, Pappenberger F, Nobert S, Bálint G, Edlund C, Koistinen A, de Saint-Aubin C, Sprokkereef E, Viel C, Salamon P, Buizza R. 2009. EPS progress in the implementation of hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) in Europe for operational flood forecasting. ECMWF Newsletters 121: 2024, http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/newsletters/pdf/121.pdf.
  • Collins H, Evans R. 2007. Rethinking Expertise. University of Chicago Press: Chicago, IL.
  • Demeritt D, Cloke H, Pappenberger F, Thielen J, Bartholmes J, Ramos M-H. 2007. Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting. Environmental Hazards 7: 115127.
  • Doswell CA III. 2004. Weather forecasting by humans—heuristics and decision making. Weather and Forecasting 19: 11151126.
  • ECMWF. 2010. The poor man's ensemble approach. http://www. ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/guide/The_poor_man_s_ensemble_ approach_1.html (Last accessed 20 March 2010).
  • Faulkner H, Parker D, Green C, Beven K. 2007. Developing a translational discourse to communicate uncertainty in flood risk between science and the practitioner. Ambio: A Journal of the Human Environment 36: 692703.
  • Gigerenzer G, Hertwig R, Van den Broek E, Fasolo B, Katsikopoulos KV. 2005. “A 30% Chance of rain tomorrow”: how does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts? Risk Analysis 3: 623629.
  • Golding B. 2000. Quantitative precipitation forecasting in the UK. Journal of Hydrology 239: 286305.
  • Golding B. 2009. Long lead time flood warnings: reality or fantasy? Meteorological Applications 16: 312.
  • Handmer J, Proudley B. 2007. Communicating uncertainty via probabilities: the case of weather forecasts. Environmental Hazards 7: 7987.
  • Hoggart K, Lees LC, Davies AR. 2002. Researching Human Geography. Arnold: London.
  • Jaun S, Ahrens B, Walser A, Ewen T, Schär C. 2008. A probabilistic view on the August 2005 floods in the upper Rhine catchment. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 8: 281291.
  • Krzysztofowicz R. 2001. The case for probabilistic forecasting in hydrology. Journal of Hydrology 249: 29.
  • Lumbroso D. 2007. Review report of operational flood management methods and models. FLOODsite Project Report T17-0701. WL Delft Hydraulics: Delft, Netherlands. http://www.floodsite.net/html/ partner_area/project_docs/Task17_ report_M17_1review_v1_1.pdf. (Last accessed 21 January 2010).
  • Lumbroso D, von Christierson B. 2009. Communication and Dissemination of Probabilistic Flood Warnings—Literature Review of International Material. Science Project SC070060/SR3 for Environment Agency/Defra Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Research and Development Programme. Environment Agency: Bristol.
  • MacKenzie D. 1990. Inventing Accuracy: An Historical Sociology of Nuclear Missile Guidance. MIT Press: Cambridge, MA.
  • Molteni F, Buizza R, Palmer TN, Petroliagis T. 1996. The ECMWF Ensemble prediction system: methodology and validation. Quaternary Journal of the Meteorological Society 122: 73119.
  • Montanari A. 2005. Large sample behaviors of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) in assessing the uncertainty of rainfall–runoffsimulations. Water Resources Research 41: W08406, DOI:10.1029/2004WR003826.
  • Morss R, Demuth J, Lazo J. 2008. Communicating uncertainty in weather forecasts: a survey of the US public. Weather and Forecasting 23: 974991.
  • Morss RE, Wilhelmi OV, Downton MW, Gruntfest E. 2005. Flood risk, uncertainty, and scientific information for decision making: lessons from an interdisciplinary project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86: 15931601.
  • Murphy A, Lichtenstein S, Fischhoff B, Winkler RL. 1980. Misinterpretation of precipitation probability forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 61: 695701.
  • Nicholls N. 1999. Cognitive illusions, heuristics, and climate prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 7: 13851397.
  • Nobert S, Demeritt D, Cloke H. 2010. Informing operational flood management with ensemble predictions: lessons from Sweden. Journal of Flood Risk Management 3: 7279.
  • NRC (National Research Council). 2006. Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts. National Academy Press: Washington, DC.
  • Olsson J, Lindström G. 2008. Evaluation and calibration of operational hydrological ensemble forecasts in Sweden. Journal of Hydrology 350: 1424.
  • Palmer TN. 2002. The economic value of ensemble forecasts as a tool for risk assessment: from days to decades. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 128: 147174.
  • Park Y-Y, Buizza R, Leutbecher M. 2008. TIGGE: preliminary results on comparing and combining ensembles. Quaternary Journal of the Meteorological Society 134: 20292050.
  • Parker DJ, Priest SJ, Tapsell SM. 2009. Understanding and enhancing the public's behavioural response to flood warning information. Meteorological Applications 16: 103114.
  • Pielke RA Jr. 1999. Who decides? Forecasts and responsibilities in the 1997 Red River flood. Applied Behavioral Science Review 7: 83101.
  • Pitt M. 2008. Learning Lessons from the 2007 Floods: An Independent Review by Sir Michael Pitt. Cabinet Office: London.
  • Rayner S, Lach D, Ingram H. 2005. Weather forecasts are for wimps: why water resource managers do not use climate forecasts. Climatic Change 69: 197227.
  • Richardson DS. 2000. Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Quaternary Journal of the Meteorological Society 126: 649667.
  • Rothstein H, Huber M, Gaskell G. 2006. A theory of risk colonization: the sprialling regulatory logics of societal and institutional risk. Economy and Society 35: 91112.
  • Roulin E. 2006. Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 3: 13691406.
  • Roulston MS, Smith LA. 2004. The boy who cried wolf revisited: the impact of false alarm intolerance on cost-loss scenarios. Weather and Forecasting 19: 391397.
  • Sene K, Huband M, Chen Y, Darch G. 2007. Probabilistic flood forecasting scoping study. R&D Technical Report FD2901/TR. Defra: London.
  • Shackley S, Wynne B. 1995. Integrating knowledges for climate change: pyramids, nets and uncertainties. Global Environmental Change 5: 113126.
  • Thielen J, Bartholmes J, Ramos M-H, de Roo A. 2009. The European flood alert system—Part 1: concept and development. Hydrology and Earth System Science 13: 125140.
  • Thielen J, Schaake J, Hartman R, Buizza R. 2008. Aims, challenges and progress of the hydrological ensemble prediction experiment (HEPEX) following the third HEPEX workshop held in Stresa 27 to 29 June 2007.Atmospheric Science Letters 9: 2935.
  • Wang Y, Bellus M, Wittmann C, Steinheimer M, Ivatek-Sahdan, S, Kann A, Tian W, Ma X, Tascu S, Bazile E. 2009. The Central European limited area ensemble forecasting system: ALADIN-LAEF. Technical report, RC—LACE Project (Regional Cooperation for Limited Area modeling in Central Europe). http://www.rclace.eu/?page = 40. (Last accessed 21 January 2010).