Analysis of temperature series: estimation of missing data and homogeneity test

Authors


M. Firat, Faculty of Engineering, Civil Engineering Department, Inonu University, 44258 Malatya, Turkey. E-mail: mfirat@gmail.com

Abstract

In this study, missing value analysis and homogeneity tests were applied on the 267 meteorological stations having temperature records throughout Turkey. The monthly and annual mean temperature data of stations operated by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (DMI) for the period 1968–1998 were considered. For each station, each month was analysed separately and the stations with more than 5 years missing values were eliminated. The missing values of the stations were extrapolated by the Expectation Maximization (EM) method using the data of the nearest gauging station (reference station). In consequence of the analysis, annual mean temperature data are obtained by using the monthly values. These data have to be hydrologically/statistically reliable if they are to be used in later hydrological, meteorological, climate change and estimation studies. For this reason, the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), the (Swed-Eisenhart) Runs Test and the Pettitt homogeneity test were applied to detect inhomogeneities in the annual mean temperature series. Each test was evaluated separately and inhomogeneous stations were determined. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

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