How much does simplification of probability forecasts reduce forecast quality?
Version of Record online: 20 MAR 2008
Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
Special Issue: Forecast Verification
Volume 15, Issue 1, pages 155–162, March 2008
How to Cite
Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Coelho, C. A. S. and Stephenson, D. B. (2008), How much does simplification of probability forecasts reduce forecast quality?. Met. Apps, 15: 155–162. doi: 10.1002/met.50
- Issue online: 20 MAR 2008
- Version of Record online: 20 MAR 2008
- Manuscript Accepted: 2 JAN 2008
- Manuscript Revised: 18 DEC 2007
- Manuscript Received: 21 SEP 2007
- ENSEMBLES. Grant Number: GOCE-CT-2003-505539
- Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP). Grant Numbers: 2005/05210-7, 2006/02497-6
- 2007. Development of the ECMWF seasonal forecast System 3. ECMWF Technical Memorandum 503 [Available from http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/library/do/references/show?id = 87744]. , , , , , , , , .
- 2004. Estimation of the reliability of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 130: 627–646. .
- 2007. The ECMWF System 3 ocean analysis system. ECMWF Technical Memorandum 508 [Available from http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/library/do/references/show?id = 87667]. , , .
- 2003. Multimodel ensembling in seasonal climate forecasting at IRI. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84: 1783–1796. , , , , .
- 1950. Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probabilities. Monthly Weather Review 78: 1–3. .
- 2007. Comparing probabilistic forecasting systems with the Brier score. Weather and Forecasting 22: 1076–1088. .
- 2005. The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting. Part I: Basic concept. Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 57: 219–233. , , .
- 2006. Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on re-forecast analogs: theory and application. Monthly Weather Review 134: 3209–3229. , .
- 1986. The attributes diagram: a geometrical framework for assessing the quality of probability forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting 2: 285–293. , .
- 2007. Uncertainty and inference for verification measures. Weather and Forecasting 22: 137–150. .
- 2005. A cautionary note on the use of error bars. Journal of Climate 18: 3699–3703. .
- 2002. The impact of horizontal resolution and ensemble size on probabilistic forecasts of precipitation by the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Weather and Forecasting 17: 173–191. , .
- 1986. A new decomposition of the Brier Score: formulation and interpretation. Monthly Weather Review 114: 2671–2673. .
- 2001. The insignificance of significance testing. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82: 981–986. .
- 2001. Measures of skill and value of ensemble prediction systems, their interrelationship and the effect of ensemble size. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 127: 2473–2489. .
- 2003. Combining dynamical and statistical ensembles. Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 55: 16–30. , .
- 2008. Two extra components in the Brier score decomposition. Weather and Forecasting in press. , , .
- 2005. Forecast Assimilation: a unified framework for the combination of multi-model weather and climate predictions. Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 57: 253–264. , , , .
- 2005. The ERA-40 reanalysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 131: 2961–3012. , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .