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Keywords:

  • Bayesian inference;
  • stochastic ordering;
  • dynamic programming;
  • Kalman filter;
  • preposterior analysis;
  • software reliability

Abstract

In this paper we address the problem of how to decide when to terminate the testing/modification process and to release the software during the development phase. We present a Bayesian decision theoretic approach by formulating the optimal release problem as a sequential decision problem. By using a non-Gaussian Kalman filter type model, proposed by Chen and Singpurwalla (1994), to track software reliability, we are able to obtain tractable expressions for inference and determine a one-stage look ahead stopping rule under reasonable conditions and a class of loss functions. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003