A logistic regression/Markov chain model for NCAA basketball
Article first published online: 14 JUL 2006
Copyright © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Naval Research Logistics (NRL)
Volume 53, Issue 8, pages 788–803, December 2006
How to Cite
Kvam, P. and Sokol, J. S. (2006), A logistic regression/Markov chain model for NCAA basketball. Naval Research Logistics, 53: 788–803. doi: 10.1002/nav.20170
- Issue published online: 19 OCT 2006
- Article first published online: 14 JUL 2006
- Manuscript Accepted: 14 MAY 2006
- Manuscript Received: 16 MAY 2005
Each year, more than $3 billion is wagered on the NCAA Division 1 men's basketball tournament. Most of that money is wagered in pools where the object is to correctly predict winners of each game, with emphasis on the last four teams remaining (the Final Four). In this paper, we present a combined logistic regression/Markov chain model for predicting the outcome of NCAA tournament games given only basic input data. Over the past 6 years, our model has been significantly more successful than the other common methods such as tournament seedings, the AP and ESPN/USA Today polls, the RPI, and the Sagarin and Massey ratings. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006.