The problem of forecasting the need and the cost for post-discharge skilled home nursing services is addressed by a simple statistical model. The model, assumptions, and simple calculations are described. Use of the model is illustrated with 7598 cancer patients and 2337 myocardial infarction patients. Simulation of the impact of changes in the health care delivery system toward greater and lesser severity of hospitalized patients is carried out. Two key projections illustrating the model's output are the number of patients with these diseases who will need care and the cost of that care.