• 1
    Branca FNH, Lobstein T. The challenge of obesity in the WHO European Region and the strategies for response. Denmark: World Health Organization, 2007.
  • 2
    Cameron AJ, Welborn TA, Zimmet PZ, et al. Overweight and obesity in Australia: the 1999-2000 Australian diabetes, obesity and lifestyle study (AusDiab). Med J Aust 2003; 178: 427-432.
  • 3
    Flegal KM, Carroll MD, Ogden CL, et al. Prevalence and trends in obesity among US adults, 1999-2000. JAMA 2002; 288: 1723-1727.
  • 4
    Overweight, obesity, and health risk. National task force on the prevention and treatment of obesity. Arch Intern Med 2000; 160: 898-904.
  • 5
    O'Flaherty M, Allender S, Taylor R, et al. The decline in coronary heart disease mortality is slowing in young adults (Australia 1976-2006): a time trend analysis. Int J Cardiol 2012;158:193–198.
  • 6
    Uemura K, Pisa Z. Trends in cardiovascular disease mortality in industrialized countries since 1950. World Health Stat Q 1988; 41: 155-178.
  • 7
    Gregg EW, Cheng YJ, Cadwell BL, et al. Secular trends in cardiovascular disease risk factors according to body mass index in US adults. JAMA 2005; 293: 1868-1874.
  • 8
    Kuulasmaa K, Tunstall-Pedoe H, Dobson A, et al. Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations. Lancet 2000; 355: 675-687.
  • 9
    Rosengren A, Eriksson H, Hansson PO, et al. Obesity and trends in cardiovascular risk factors over 40 years in Swedish men aged 50. J Intern Med 2009; 266: 268-276.
  • 10
    Tunstall-Pedoe H, Vanuzzo D, Hobbs M, et al. Estimation of contribution of changes in coronary care to improving survival, event rates, and coronary heart disease mortality across the WHO MONICA Project populations. Lancet 2000; 355: 688-700.
  • 11
    AIHW. Australia's Health. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare: Canberra, 1992.
  • 12
    WHO. The World Health Report 2002: reducing risks, promoting healthy Life. Geneva: WHO, 2002.
  • 13
    Flegal KM, Graubard BI, Williamson DF, et al. Excess deaths associated with underweight, overweight, and obesity. JAMA 2005; 293: 1861-1867.
  • 14
    WHO. Preventing chronic diseases: a vital investment: a global report. Geneva: WHO, 2005.
  • 15
    Stevens J, Cai J, Pamuk ER, et al. The effect of age on the association between body-mass index and mortality. N Engl J Med 1998; 338: 1-7.
  • 16
    Dyer AR, Stamler J, Garside DB, et al. Long-term consequences of body mass index for cardiovascular mortality: the Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry study. Ann Epidemiol 2004; 14: 101-108.
  • 17
    Bogers RP, Bemelmans WJ, Hoogenveen RT, et al. Association of overweight with increased risk of coronary heart disease partly independent of blood pressure and cholesterol levels: a meta-analysis of 21 cohort studies including more than 300 000 persons. Arch Intern Med 2007; 167: 1720-1728.
  • 18
    Greenland S, Longnecker MP. Methods for trend estimation from summarized dose-response data, with applications to meta-analysis. Am J Epidemiol 1992; 135: 1301-1309.
  • 19
    Hartemink N, Boshuizen HC, Nagelkerke NJ, et al. Combining risk estimates from observational studies with different exposure cutpoints: a meta-analysis on body mass index and diabetes type 2. Am J Epidemiol 2006; 163: 1042-1052.
  • 20
    van Houwelingen HC, Arends LR, Stijnen T. Advanced methods in meta-analysis: multivariate approach and meta-regression. Stat Med 2002; 21: 589-624.
  • 21
    Welborn TA, Dhaliwal SS, Bennett SA. Waist-hip ratio is the dominant risk factor predicting cardiovascular death in Australia. Med J Aust 2003; 179: 580-585.
  • 22
    Knuiman MW, Vu HT. Prediction of coronary heart disease mortality in Busselton, Western Australia: an evaluation of the Framingham, national health epidemiologic follow up study, and WHO ERICA risk scores. J Epidemiol Commun Health 1997; 51: 515-519.
  • 23
    Yarnell JW, Patterson CC, Sweetnam PM, et al. Haemostatic/inflammatory markers predict 10-year risk of IHD at least as well as lipids: the Caerphilly collaborative studies. Eur Heart J 2004; 25: 1049-1056.
  • 24
    Yu S, Yarnell JW, Sweetnam PM, et al. What level of physical activity protects against premature cardiovascular death? The Caerphilly study. Heart 2003; 89: 502-506.
  • 25
    Simons LA, Friedlander Y, McCallum J, et al. Risk factors for coronary heart disease in the prospective Dubbo Study of Australian elderly. Atherosclerosis 1995; 117: 107-118.
  • 26
    Menotti A, Lanti M, Puddu PE, et al. The risk functions incorporated in Riscard 2002: a software for the prediction of cardiovascular risk in the general population based on Italian data. Ital Heart J 2002; 3: 114-121.
  • 27
    Knekt P, Reunanen A, Jarvinen R, et al. Antioxidant vitamin intake and coronary mortality in a longitudinal population study. Am J Epidemiol 1994; 139: 1180-1189.
  • 28
    Kaprio J, Kujala UM, Koskenvuo M, et al. Physical activity and other risk factors in male twin-pairs discordant for coronary heart disease. Atherosclerosis 2000; 150: 193-200.
  • 29
    Kujala UM, Kaprio J, Koskenvuo M. Modifiable risk factors as predictors of all-cause mortality: the roles of genetics and childhood environment. Am J Epidemiol 2002; 156: 985-993.
  • 30
    MacMahon S, Norton R, Jackson R, et al. Fletcher Challenge-University of Auckland heart and health study: design and baseline findings. N Z Med J 1995; 108: 499-502.
  • 31
    Menotti A, Lanti M, Puddu PE, et al. First risk functions for prediction of coronary and cardiovascular disease incidence in the Gubbio Population Study. Ital Heart J 2000; 1: 394-399.
  • 32
    Folsom AR, Kushi LH, Anderson KE, et al. Associations of general and abdominal obesity with multiple health outcomes in older women: the Iowa Women's Health Study. Arch Intern Med 2000; 160: 2117-2128.
  • 33
    Menotti A, Lanti M. Coronary risk factors predicting early and late coronary deaths. Heart 2003; 89: 19-24.
  • 34
    Lakka HM, Lakka TA, Tuomilehto J, et al. Abdominal obesity is associated with increased risk of acute coronary events in men. Eur Heart J 2002; 23: 706-713.
  • 35
    Jonsson S, Hedblad B, Engstrom G, et al. Influence of obesity on cardiovascular risk. Twenty-three-year follow-up of 22,025 men from an urban Swedish population. Int J Obes Relat Metab Disord 2002; 26: 1046-1053.
  • 36
    Tomas-Abadal L, Varas-Lorenzo C, Bernades-Bernat E, et al. Coronary risk factors and a 20-year incidence of coronary heart disease and mortality in a Mediterranean industrial population. The Manresa Study, Spain. Eur Heart J 1994; 15: 1028-1036.
  • 37
    Giles GG, English DR. The Melbourne collaborative cohort study. IARC Sci Publ 2002; 156: 69-70.
  • 38
    Rosengren A, Wedel H, Wilhelmsen L. Body weight and weight gain during adult life in men in relation to coronary heart disease and mortality. A prospective population study. Eur Heart J 1999; 20: 269-277.
  • 39
    Thorpe RJ, Jr, Ferraro KF. Aging, obesity, and mortality. Misplaced concern about obese people? Res Aging 2004; 26: 108-129.
  • 40
    Bakx JC, Veldstra MI, van den Hoogen HM, et al. Blood pressure and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a Dutch population: the Nijmegen cohort study. Prev Med 2001; 32: 142-147.
  • 41
    Strand BH, Tverdal A. Can cardiovascular risk factors and lifestyle explain the educational inequalities in mortality from ischaemic heart disease and from other diseases? 26 year follow up of 50,000 Norwegian men and women. J Epidemiol Commun Health 2004; 58: 705-709.
  • 42
    Li TY, Rana JS, Manson JE, et al. Obesity as compared with physical activity in predicting risk of coronary heart disease in women. Circulation 2006; 113: 499-506.
  • 43
    Risk Factor Prevalence Study—Survey No 3, 1989. National Heart Foundation and Australian Institute of Health of Welfare, 1991.
  • 44
    Magnus P, Armstrong B, McCall M. A comparison of populations self-selected and randomly selected for coronary risk factor screening. Prev Med 1983; 12: 340-350.
  • 45
    Mahamat A, Richard F, Arveiler D, et al. Body mass index, hypertension and 5-year coronary heart disease incidence in middle aged men: the PRIME study. J Hypertens 2003; 21: 519-524.
  • 46
    Menotti A, Seccareccia F, Blackburn H, et al. Coronary mortality and its prediction in samples of US and Italian railroad employees in 25 years within the Seven Countries Study of cardiovascular diseases. Int J Epidemiol 1995; 24: 515-521.
  • 47
    Tunstall-Pedoe H, Woodward M, Tavendale R, et al. Comparison of the prediction by 27 different factors of coronary heart disease and death in men and women of the Scottish Heart Health Study: cohort study. BMJ 1997; 315: 722-729.
  • 48
    Haveman-Nies A, de Groot LP, Burema J, et al. Dietary quality and lifestyle factors in relation to 10-year mortality in older Europeans: the SENECA study. Am J Epidemiol 2002; 156: 962-968.
  • 49
    Sundquist K, Qvist J, Johansson SE, et al. The long-term effect of physical activity on incidence of coronary heart disease: a 12-year follow-up study. Prev Med 2005; 41: 219-225.
  • 50
    Barbagallo CM, Cavera G, Sapienza M, et al. Prevalence of overweight and obesity in a rural southern Italy population and relationships with total and cardiovascular mortality: the Ventimiglia di Sicilia project. Int J Obes Relat Metab Disord 2001; 25: 185-190.
  • 51
    Jamrozik K, Norman PE, Spencer CA, et al. Screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm: lessons from a population-based study. Med J Aust 2000; 173: 345-350.
  • 52
    Lawrence-Brown MM, Norman PE, Jamrozik K, et al. Initial results of ultrasound screening for aneurysm of the abdominal aorta in Western Australia: relevance for endoluminal treatment of aneurysm disease. Cardiovasc Surg 2001; 9: 234-240.
  • 53
    Batty GD, Shipley MJ, Jarrett RJ, et al. Obesity and overweight in relation to disease-specific mortality in men with and without existing coronary heart disease in London: the original Whitehall study. Heart 2006; 92: 886-892.
  • 54
    Jarrett RJ, Shipley MJ, Rose G. Weight and mortality in the Whitehall Study. Br Med J (Clin Res Ed) 1982; 285: 535-537.
  • 55
    Buijsse B, Feskens EJ, Kok FJ, et al. Cocoa intake, blood pressure, and cardiovascular mortality: the Zutphen Elderly Study. Arch Intern Med 2006; 166: 411-417.
  • 56
    Harris TB, Savage PJ, Tell GS, et al. Carrying the burden of cardiovascular risk in old age: associations of weight and weight change with prevalent cardiovascular disease, risk factors, and health status in the Cardiovascular Health Study. Am J Clin Nutr 1997; 66: 837-844.
  • 57
    Schaefer EJ. Lipoproteins, nutrition, and heart disease. Am J Clin Nutr 2002; 75: 191-212.
  • 58
    Whitlock G, Lewington S, Sherliker P, et al. Body-mass index and cause-specific mortality in 900 000 adults: collaborative analyses of 57 prospective studies. Lancet 2009; 373: 1083-1096.
  • 59
    Rodriguez C, Calle EE, Patel AV, et al. Effect of body mass on the association between estrogen replacement therapy and mortality among elderly US women. Am J Epidemiol 2001; 153: 145-152.
  • 60
    Pischon T, Boeing H, Hoffmann K, et al. General and abdominal adiposity and risk of death in Europe. N Engl J Med 2008; 359: 2105-2120.
  • 61
    Chiuve SE, McCullough ML, Sacks FM, et al. Healthy lifestyle factors in the primary prevention of coronary heart disease among men: benefits among users and nonusers of lipid-lowering and antihypertensive medications. Circulation 2006; 114: 160-167.
  • 62
    Janssen I, Mark AE. Elevated body mass index and mortality risk in the elderly. Obes Rev 2007; 8: 41-59.
  • 63
    Ni Mhurchu C, Rodgers A, Pan WH, et al. Body mass index and cardiovascular disease in the Asia-Pacific Region: an overview of 33 cohorts involving 310 000 participants. Int J Epidemiol 2004; 33: 751-758.
  • 64
    Zamboni M, Mazzali G, Zoico E, et al. Health consequences of obesity in the elderly: a review of four unresolved questions. Int J Obes (Lond) 2005; 29: 1011-1029.
  • 65
    Allison DB, Gallagher D, Heo M, et al. Body mass index and all-cause mortality among people age 70 and over: the longitudinal study of aging. Int J Obes Relat Metab Disord 1997; 21: 424-431.
  • 66
    De Hollander EL, Van Zutphen M, Bogers RP, et al. The impact of body mass index in old age on cause-specific mortality. J Nutr Health Aging 2012;16: 100-106.
  • 67
    Flicker L, McCaul KA, Hankey GJ, et al. Body mass index and survival in men and women aged 70 to 75. J Am Geriatr Soc 2010; 58: 234-241.
  • 68
    Heitmann BL, Erikson H, Ellsinger BM, et al. Mortality associated with body fat, fat-free mass and body mass index among 60-year-old swedish men-a 22-year follow-up. The study of men born in 1913. Int J Obes Relat Metab Disord 2000; 24: 33-37.
  • 69
    Seidell JC. Waist circumference and waist/hip ratio in relation to all-cause mortality, cancer and sleep apnea. Eur J Clin Nutr 2010; 64: 35-41.