The explosion blast prediction model in the revised CPR 14E (yellow book)



The well-known Yellow Book, nickname for the publication by the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and the Environment contains a number of models for prediction of the effects following an accidenial release of hazardous materials. TNO was involved in a complete revision of this Yellow Book. One of the models that has been completely revised is the blast prediction model for vapor cloud explosions. The Multy-Energy model was selected as the new model to be incorporated in the revision. The concept of the Multy-Energy model is widely accepted as a better alternative to TNT equivalence methods although a practical application is hampered by a lack of guidance for application in practice. Guidance for application is given in the revision, though it still leads to conservative solutions.

This paper describes how the method should be applied according to the revised Yellow Book. The motivation for the guidance for application given is discussed by comparison with guidance given in other publications and with experimental results obtained from some large scale experimental programs. Present efforts in an ongoing research program by TNO to obtain more detailed and sound guidance is presented as well.