Determination of areas with the most significant shift in persistence of pests in Europe under climate change

Authors

  • Eva Svobodová,

    Corresponding author
    1. Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University in Brno, Brno, Czech Republic
    2. CzechGlobe—Global Change Research Centre ASCR, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Brno, Czech Republic
    • Correspondence to: Eva Svobodová, Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1, 638 00 Brno, Czech Republic. E-mail: e_svobodova@yahoo.com

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  • Miroslav Trnka,

    1. Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University in Brno, Brno, Czech Republic
    2. CzechGlobe—Global Change Research Centre ASCR, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Brno, Czech Republic
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  • Martin Dubrovský,

    1. Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University in Brno, Brno, Czech Republic
    2. CzechGlobe—Global Change Research Centre ASCR, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Brno, Czech Republic
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  • Daniela Semerádová,

    1. CzechGlobe—Global Change Research Centre ASCR, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Brno, Czech Republic
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  • Josef Eitzinger,

    1. CzechGlobe—Global Change Research Centre ASCR, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Brno, Czech Republic
    2. Institute of Meteorology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna, Austria
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  • Petr Štěpánek,

    1. CzechGlobe—Global Change Research Centre ASCR, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Brno, Czech Republic
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  • Zdeněk Žalud

    1. Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University in Brno, Brno, Czech Republic
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Abstract

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to estimate the impact of climate change on the ranges of crop pest species in Europe. The organisms included in the study were species from the family Tortricidae (Cydia pomonella, Lobesia botrana) and the family Pyralidae (Ostrinia nubilalis), Chrysomelidae beetles (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Oulema melanopus) and species from the family Aphididae (Ropalosiphum padi, Sitobion avenae). Climate conditions in the year 2055 were simulated using a subset of five representative global circulation models. Model simulations using these climate change scenarios showed significant shifts in the climatic niches of the species in this study.

RESULTS

For Central Europe, the models predicted a shift in the ranges of pest species to higher altitudes and increases in the number of generations (NG) of the pests. In contrast, in the southern regions of Europe, the NG is likely to decrease owing to insufficient humidity. The ranges of species are likely to shift to the north.

CONCLUSION

Based on the ensemble-scenario mean for 2055, a climate-driven northward shift of between 3° N (O. nubilalis) and 11° N (L. botrana) is expected. The areas that are most sensitive to experiencing a significant increase in climate suitability for future pest persistence were identified. These areas include Central Europe, the higher altitudes of the Alps and Carpathians and areas above 55° N. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry

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