Forecasting Scottish Migration in the Context of the 2014 Constitutional Change Debate
Article first published online: 23 APR 2014
© 2014 The Authors Population, Space and Place Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Population, Space and Place
Volume 20, Issue 5, pages 455–464, July 2014
How to Cite
Wiśniowski, A., Bijak, J. and Shang, H. L. (2014), Forecasting Scottish Migration in the Context of the 2014 Constitutional Change Debate. Popul. Space Place, 20: 455–464. doi: 10.1002/psp.1856
- Issue published online: 1 JUL 2014
- Article first published online: 23 APR 2014
- Manuscript Accepted: 22 MAR 2014
- Bayesian modelling;
- constitutional referendum;
- time series;
Migration to and from Scotland might be affected by the outcome of the 2014 Scottish referendum on the constitutional future of the United Kingdom. This potential change in migration has not been thoroughly analysed to date. The aim of this paper is thus to present a set of predictions of the possible effects of Scottish independence on internal and international migration. In particular, different sources of uncertainty of future migration flows are examined. The presented forecasts are based on the available historical data on migration flows, as well as on the opinions of a panel of experts on future migration trends. Bayesian statistical inference is used to combine different sources of uncertainty in a coherent manner. The results indicate that there is substantial uncertainty about future migration to and from Scotland, which increases with the forecast horizon. The most uncertain flow is international immigration to Scotland. Emigration from Scotland is more likely than not to increase in the near future, whereas migration between Scotland and the rest of the UK is expected to remain at similar levels to the present, irrespective of the outcome of the 2014 independence referendum. © 2014 The Authors. Population, Space and Place Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.