Research Article

Recent developments in population projection methodology: a review

  1. Tom Wilson1,*,
  2. Phil Rees2

Article first published online: 2 SEP 2005

DOI: 10.1002/psp.389

Issue

Population, Space and Place

Population, Space and Place

Volume 11, Issue 5, pages 337–360, September/October 2005

Additional Information

How to Cite

Wilson, T. and Rees, P. (2005), Recent developments in population projection methodology: a review. Population, Space and Place, 11: 337–360. doi: 10.1002/psp.389

Author Information

  1. 1

    Queensland Centre for Population Research, School of Geography, Planning and Architecture, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia

  2. 2

    School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK

*School for Social and Policy Research, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, Northern Territory 0909, Australia.

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 2 SEP 2005
  2. Article first published online: 2 SEP 2005
  3. Manuscript Revised: 20 JUN 2005
  4. Manuscript Accepted: 20 JUN 2005
  5. Manuscript Received: 17 MAR 2005

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Keywords:

  • population projections;
  • review;
  • methodology;
  • probabilistic projections;
  • migration;
  • scenarios

Abstract

In this paper we survey five streams of research that have made important contributions to population projection methodology over the last decade. These are: (i) the evaluation of population forecasts; (ii) probabilistic methods; (iii) experiments in the projection of migration; (iv) projecting dimensions additional to age, sex and region; and (v) the use of scenarios for ‘what if?’ analyses and understanding population dynamics. Key developments in these areas are discussed, and a number of opportunities for further research are identified. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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