The potential for skill across the range of the seamless weather-climate prediction problem: a stimulus for our science

Authors

  • Brian Hoskins

    Corresponding author
    1. Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College, London, UK
    2. Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK
    • Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College, Exhibition Road, London SW7 2AZ, UK.
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  • This article is based on the 2011 IMO Lecture given under the title ‘Predictability beyond the deterministic limit’.

Abstract

Predictability is considered in the context of the seamless weather-climate prediction problem, and the notion is developed that there can be predictive power on all time-scales. On all scales there are phenomena that occur as well as longer time-scales and external conditions that should combine to give some predictability. To what extent this theoretical predictability may actually be realised and, further, to what extent it may be useful is not clear. However the potential should provide a stimulus to, and high profile for, our science and its application for many years. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

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