Global changes in propagation of stationary waves in a warming scenario

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Abstract

An investigation of how stationary Rossby wave (SRW) propagation can change in response to the A2 climate change scenario is made using six coupled ocean–atmosphere general-circulation models (OAGCM). The simulation results for the present-day climate (1960–1990) are compared with the NCEP/NCAR and ECMWF ERA-40 re-analyses. The zonal wind, the SRW kinetic energy (KE) pattern along the waveguide and the stationary wave-number are used to analyse the changes in the SRW propagation for the winter season of each hemisphere. The main result shows that in future climate (2069–2099) the SRW propagation for longer distances is unfavourable for the main waveguides in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), which is confirmed through the SRW KE decrease. A poleward shift of the subtropical jet stream in future climate is also shown by five models in the SH and by three in the NH.

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