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Decomposition and graphical portrayal of the quantile score

Authors

  • Sabrina Bentzien,

    Corresponding author
    1. Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Germany
    2. Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Climate Monitoring Branch, Germany
    • Correspondence to: S. Bentzien, Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Auf dem Hügel 20, 53121 Bonn, Germany. E-mail: bentzien@uni-bonn.de

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  • Petra Friederichs

    1. Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Germany
    2. Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Climate Monitoring Branch, Germany
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Abstract

This study expands the pool of verification methods for probabilistic weather and climate predictions by a decomposition of the quantile score (QS). The QS is a proper score function and evaluates predictive quantiles on a set of forecast–observation pairs. We introduce a decomposition of the QS in reliability, resolution and uncertainty and discuss the biases of the decomposition. Further, a reliability diagram for quantile forecasts is presented. Verification with the QS and its decomposition is illustrated on precipitation forecasts derived from the mesoscale weather prediction ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Meteorological Service. We argue that the QS is ready to become as popular as the Brier score in forecast verification.

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