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Keywords:

  • Madden–Julian oscillation;
  • El Ni no/Southern Oscillation;
  • convectively coupled equatorial waves;
  • intraseasonal prediction

Abstract

An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis in time and space is applied to extract the coherent signals of convectively coupled equatorial waves, intraseasonal oscillations, and other disturbances from unfiltered satellite outgoing long-wave radiation anomaly data. The algorithm produces a basis of time indices for the coherent signals in selected bands of the zonal wave-number frequency domain and also generates reduced noise versions of wave-number frequency filtered data applicable in real time. Multiple linear regression is applied to forecast the time indices of each wave-number frequency band, and the predicted indices are applied to reconstruct the predicted filtered outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) fields. A cross-validation analysis demonstrates that the predicted Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) signals exhibit skill to 25 days across the global Tropics, and beyond 30 days across some of the higher latitudes of the Tropics. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society