Assessing Performance Risk for Complex Product Development: A Simulation-Based Model
Article first published online: 29 FEB 2012
Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Quality and Reliability Engineering International
Volume 29, Issue 2, pages 267–275, March 2013
How to Cite
Xu, Z. and Li, H. (2013), Assessing Performance Risk for Complex Product Development: A Simulation-Based Model. Qual. Reliab. Engng. Int., 29: 267–275. doi: 10.1002/qre.1376
- Issue published online: 18 FEB 2013
- Article first published online: 29 FEB 2012
- National Science Foundation of China. Grant Number: 70871004
- complex product development;
- graphical evaluation and review technique;
- performance risk;
- risk assessment
Assessing and managing performance risk is important for complex product development projects. The performance risk of complex product development can be defined as the probability failing to achieve desired performance level subject to cost and time constraints. This article presents a simulation model based on the graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) and analyzes the complex product development project using simulation data. The model computes the probability distribution of project duration and cost in a GERT network with multifeedback branches considering activities rework that is caused by probabilistic failure to meet the planned design objective. A simulation strategy is designed to assess the performance risk in both subsystems and system development. With the performance risk assessment methodology, project managers can make a better decision and then minimize the performance risk of product development project. Finally, an obstacle clearance armored vehicle development project is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.