Thanks to the editors and referees for valuable comments and to the students for participating in the experiments and for ensuing discussions.
Misperceptions of basic dynamics: the case of renewable resource management
Article first published online: 6 JUL 2004
Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
System Dynamics Review
Special Issue: Environmental and Resource Systems
Volume 20, Issue 2, pages 139–162, Summer 2004
How to Cite
Moxnes, E. (2004), Misperceptions of basic dynamics: the case of renewable resource management. Syst. Dyn. Rev., 20: 139–162. doi: 10.1002/sdr.289
- Issue published online: 6 JUL 2004
- Article first published online: 6 JUL 2004
- Manuscript Accepted: JUL 2003
- Manuscript Received: MAR 2003
Previous laboratory experiments, using quite complex resource simulators, suggest that renewable resources are over-utilised because of a general tendency for people to systematically misperceive the dynamics of bioeconomic systems. Here, similar experiments with simpliﬁed simulators involving the management of reindeer rangelands are carried out. Sufﬁcient information is given for the subjects to construct perfect mental models. Misperceptions persist for a simulator containing only the basic building block of all dynamic systems: one stock and two ﬂows. Results deteriorate in a second treatment where a two-stock model is used. Compared to earlier studies using questionnaires, where subjects do not beneﬁt from repeated outcome feedback, the experiments show that, even in these simple systems, information feedback is not sufﬁcient to make up for misperceptions. Simulations are used to test two hypothesised decision rules: the optimal policy is rejected; a simple feedback rule is not. Altogether, the experiment and the simulations provide both a motivation for and an introduction to studies of system dynamics. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.