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Abstract

This article presents the results of a dynamic simulation study of a rural area in southern Sudan. In order to improve the living conditions of the rural population in this area, three intervention packages were planned: improved veterinary care; improved agricultural practices; and better general facilities like medical care, clean drinking water, schools, and roads. Although these interventions initially seem to benefit the rural population, some worsen the situation after a number of years when compared to the case without interventions, and others are not able to bring about a sustainable development of the area. Especially the improvement of the general infrastructure causes problems in the long run because it accelerates migration from the rural areas to the town. This increases the share of imported sorghum purchased by the town dwellers and diminishes the ability of the rural population to purchase food after a year of a low Productivity. It is concluded that analyzing the dynamics of the system can foster planning of appropriate interventions.