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Keywords:

  • regression models;
  • points system;
  • multivariable analysis;
  • risk scores;
  • prediction functions

Abstract

The Framingham Heart Study has been a leader in the development and dissemination of multivariable statistical models to estimate the risk of coronary heart disease. These models quantify the impact of measurable and modifiable risk factors on the development of coronary heart disease and can be used to generate estimates of risk of coronary heart disease over a predetermined period, for example the next 10 years. We developed a system, which we call a points system, for making these complex statistical models useful to practitioners. The system is easy to use, it does not require a calculator or computer and it simplifies the estimation of risk based on complex statistical models. This system represents an effort to make available a tool for clinicians to aid in their decision-making process regarding treatment and to assist them in motivating patients toward healthy behaviours. The system is also readily available to patients who can easily estimate their own coronary heart disease risk and monitor this risk over time. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.