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Keywords:

  • Incidence;
  • Prevalence;
  • Chronic diseases;
  • Epidemiological methods;
  • Lung cancer;
  • Breast cancer

Abstract

Measures of chronic degenerative disease diffusion, such as incidence and prevalence rates, are a basic need for epidemiologists and others working in many fields of human sciences. Equations relating death probabilities to incidence and survival probabilities for chronic degenerative diseases are derived from a cohort point of view. A maximum likelihood approach is adopted for the estimation of incidence as a function of time related covariates. When time series of mortality data are available, the model can be used to describe and analyse levels and dynamics of morbidity. A trial application to lung and breast cancer is given for the province of Varese, Italy, where incidence data are available from the Lombardy Cancer Register.