A method for the estimation of chronic disease morbidity and trends from mortality data
Article first published online: 12 OCT 2006
Copyright © 1989 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Statistics in Medicine
Volume 8, Issue 2, pages 201–216, February 1989
How to Cite
Verdecchia, A., Capocaccia, R., Egidi, V. and Golini, A. (1989), A method for the estimation of chronic disease morbidity and trends from mortality data. Statist. Med., 8: 201–216. doi: 10.1002/sim.4780080207
- Issue published online: 12 OCT 2006
- Article first published online: 12 OCT 2006
- Manuscript Revised: JUL 1988
- Manuscript Received: MAY 1987
- Chronic diseases;
- Epidemiological methods;
- Lung cancer;
- Breast cancer
Measures of chronic degenerative disease diffusion, such as incidence and prevalence rates, are a basic need for epidemiologists and others working in many fields of human sciences. Equations relating death probabilities to incidence and survival probabilities for chronic degenerative diseases are derived from a cohort point of view. A maximum likelihood approach is adopted for the estimation of incidence as a function of time related covariates. When time series of mortality data are available, the model can be used to describe and analyse levels and dynamics of morbidity. A trial application to lung and breast cancer is given for the province of Varese, Italy, where incidence data are available from the Lombardy Cancer Register.