Trends in mortality from melanoma in Canada and prediction of future rates
Article first published online: 28 FEB 2007
Copyright © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Statistics in Medicine
Volume 14, Issue 8, pages 821–839, 30 April 1995
How to Cite
Macneill, I. B., Elwood, J. M., Miller, D. and Mao, Y. (1995), Trends in mortality from melanoma in Canada and prediction of future rates. Statist. Med., 14: 821–839. doi: 10.1002/sim.4780140811
- Issue published online: 28 FEB 2007
- Article first published online: 28 FEB 2007
- Manuscript Revised: APR 1993
- Manuscript Received: FEB 1993
- National Cancer Institute of Canada and of the Canadian Cancer Registries
A long term increase in incidence of and mortality due to malignant melanoma has been observed in all well documented white populations. The major identified cause of melanoma is sun exposure. One would expect predictions of future atmospheric ozone depletion to lead to an increase in ultraviolet radiation (UVR) and in the effects of sun exposure. We consider age-period data for Canadian malignant malanoma mortality. We fit a multiplicative exponential/logistic (MEL) model to the data and extrapolate to AD 2010 hence yielding point estimates of future rates. We obtain total mortality forecasts by multiplying rates by population estimates. We present standard errors for forecasts. We forecast that melanoma will be a much larger burden on the health care system in the early years of the next century than it is at present. We obtain an age-cohort model by a simple transformation of the age-period model. Also, we obtain unconditional probabilities of death due to melanoma both for age-period and age-cohort models. We discuss the assumptions underlying the MEL model that suggest possible relationships between UVR and melanoma.