Article first published online: 17 SEP 2012
Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Statistics in Medicine
Volume 32, Issue 13, pages 2221–2234, 15 June 2013
How to Cite
Zhang, J., Braun, T. M. and Taylor, J. M.G. (2013), Adaptive prior variance calibration in the Bayesian continual reassessment method. Statist. Med., 32: 2221–2234. doi: 10.1002/sim.5621
- Issue published online: 8 MAY 2013
- Article first published online: 17 SEP 2012
- Manuscript Accepted: 25 AUG 2012
- Manuscript Revised: 16 AUG 2012
- Manuscript Received: 2 NOV 2011
- adaptive design;
- Bayes factor;
- dose-finding study;
- dose-escalation study
The use of the continual reassessment method (CRM) and other model-based approaches to design Phase I clinical trials has increased owing to the ability of the CRM to identify the maximum tolerated dose better than the 3 + 3 method. However, the CRM can be sensitive to the variance selected for the prior distribution of the model parameter, especially when a small number of patients are enrolled. Although methods have emerged to adaptively select skeletons and to calibrate the prior variance only at the beginning of a trial, there has not been any approach developed to adaptively calibrate the prior variance throughout a trial. We propose three systematic approaches to adaptively calibrate the prior variance during a trial and compare them via simulation with methods proposed to calibrate the variance at the beginning of a trial. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.