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Research Article
Deriving age-specific incidence from prevalence with an ordinary differential equation
Article first published online: 4 OCT 2012
DOI: 10.1002/sim.5651
Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Additional Information
How to Cite
Brinks, R., Landwehr, S., Icks, A., Koch, M. and Giani, G. (2013), Deriving age-specific incidence from prevalence with an ordinary differential equation. Statist. Med., 32: 2070–2078. doi: 10.1002/sim.5651
Publication History
- Issue published online: 7 MAY 2013
- Article first published online: 4 OCT 2012
- Manuscript Accepted: 17 SEP 2012
- Manuscript Received: 19 JUL 2011
Keywords:
- prevalence;
- incidence;
- mortality;
- renal replacement therapy
This article describes new relationships between the age-specific incidence of, the prevalence of and mortality from a chronic disease. We express these relationships in terms of an ordinary differential equation and form the methodological basis for a novel approach to estimating incidences from age-specific prevalence data. We examine practical aspects of the relationships and a comparison with a known stochastic method in a simulation study. Finally, we apply the novel method to a data set of renal replacement therapy recorded from patients with chronic kidney failure in a region of Germany with approximately 310,000 inhabitants from 2002 to 2010. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.