Probability of occurrence of extreme magnetic storms
Article first published online: 1 MAY 2013
©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Volume 11, Issue 5, pages 214–218, May 2013
How to Cite
2013), Probability of occurrence of extreme magnetic storms, Space Weather, 11, 214–218, doi:10.1002/swe.20044.(
- Issue published online: 18 JUN 2013
- Article first published online: 1 MAY 2013
- Accepted manuscript online: 28 MAR 2013 09:51AM EST
- Manuscript Accepted: 25 MAR 2013
- Manuscript Revised: 23 MAR 2013
- Manuscript Received: 23 FEB 2013
- magnetic storms;
- sunspot number;
- solar cycle
 To calculate the probability of extreme magnetic storms in the solar cycle 24, cumulative distribution functions are investigated using an 89 year list of magnetic storms recorded at Kakioka Magnetic Observatory. It is found that the probability of occurrence of extreme magnetic storms can be modeled as a function of maximum sunspot number of a solar cycle, and the probability of another Carrington storm occurring within the next decade is estimated to be 4–6%.