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Adaptive multiplayer approach for risk-based decision-making: 2006 Virginia Gubernatorial Inauguration

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Abstract

This paper introduces a multiplayer framework to collaboratively characterize sources of system risk from multiple expert perspectives, integrating several tools for holistic risk identification and risk management elicitation: the Adaptive Multiplayer Hierarchical Holographic Model (AMP-HHM), the Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management methodology, and the Partitioned Multiobjective Risk Method. Applicable to a broad set of systems engineering risk applications, the framework is illustrated with a case study focusing on risk assessment and management for the 2006 Gubernatorial Inauguration held in Williamsburg, VA, for which 272 different areas of risk were identified by collaborative means. Management options for three scenarios were defined, and their impacts on the inauguration were evaluated through expected and upper-tail risk measures. As a final step, the analysis determined a set of noninferior options that can be used by decision-makers to craft security strategies. A computer tool was developed to assist in the AMP-HHM process, demonstrating the efficacy of the framework in collaborative work without synchronicity and regardless of geography. While the framework has been applied to a defense risk analysis in this paper, it can easily be applied to any problem where experts from disparate backgrounds, expertise, or geographies are working together to solve an unstructured, multidimensional problem. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

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