Prediction of patient-specific risk of early preterm delivery using maternal history and sonographic measurement of cervical length: a population-based prospective study
Article first published online: 24 MAR 2006
Copyright © 2006 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology
Volume 27, Issue 4, pages 362–367, April 2006
How to Cite
To, M. S., Skentou, C. A., Royston, P., Yu, C. K. H. and Nicolaides, K. H. (2006), Prediction of patient-specific risk of early preterm delivery using maternal history and sonographic measurement of cervical length: a population-based prospective study. Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol, 27: 362–367. doi: 10.1002/uog.2773
- Issue published online: 24 MAR 2006
- Article first published online: 24 MAR 2006
- Manuscript Accepted: 20 FEB 2006
- cervical length;
- preterm delivery;
To develop a model for calculating the patient-specific risk of spontaneous early preterm delivery by combining maternal factors and the transvaginal sonographic measurement of cervical length at 22 + 0 to 24 + 6 weeks, and to compare the detection rate of this method to that achieved from screening by cervical length or maternal characteristics alone.
This was a population-based prospective multicenter study involving 40 995 unselected women with singleton pregnancies attending for routine hospital antenatal care in London, UK. Complete follow-up was obtained from 39 284 (95.8%) cases. The main outcomes were detection rate, false-positive rate and accuracy of predicting spontaneous delivery before 32 weeks' gestation.
Spontaneous delivery before 32 weeks occurred in 235 (0.6%) cases. The detection rate of screening for early preterm delivery, at a fixed false-positive rate of 10%, was 38% for maternal factors, 55% for cervical length and 69% for combined testing. There was good agreement between the model estimates and the observed probabilities of preterm delivery.
This study provides a model that can give an accurate patient-specific risk of preterm delivery. The detection rate of screening by a combination of maternal factors and the measurement of cervical length was substantially higher than that of screening by each method alone. Copyright © 2006 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.