Short-term wind forecasting using off-site observations
Article first published online: 7 DEC 2005
Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Special Issue: Contributions to the European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition, London, 2004. Published in collaboration with the European Wind Energy Association
Volume 9, Issue 1-2, pages 55–62, January - April 2006
How to Cite
Larson, K. A. and Westrick, K. (2006), Short-term wind forecasting using off-site observations. Wind Energ., 9: 55–62. doi: 10.1002/we.179
- Issue published online: 6 FEB 2006
- Article first published online: 7 DEC 2005
- Manuscript Accepted: 10 OCT 2005
- Manuscript Revised: 8 SEP 2005
- Manuscript Received: 22 NOV 2004
- Washington Technology Center.
- PPM Energy, Inc.
- short-term wind forecasting;
- off-site observations;
- numerical weather prediction
Accurate wind energy forecasts can be an essential component for economic viability of a wind project. Timely and accurate short-term (hours) forecasts can increase the electric grid efficiency and minimize ancillary or other firming requirements, ultimately resulting in reduced costs. This article investigates the use of off-site observations, at distances up to 200 km from the wind farm, as predictors in statistical forecast techniques. In combination with on-site and off-site observations, fine-scale numerical weather predictions can also be used to further increase forecast accuracy at these short forecast horizons. An example from the Pacific Northwest of the USA is described. It is shown that significant forecast improvements are feasible when using off-site observations and/or mesoscale numerical weather predictions in statistical forecast algorithms. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.