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Estimating the economic benefits of wind energy projects using Monte Carlo simulation with economic input/output analysis



A process was developed to evaluate the economic benefits from constructing and operating a wind energy project. The process uses an economic input/output analysis in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation. Process results estimate the number of jobs and amount of spending that will occur in the analysis region because of the construction and operation of a wind energy project. Results from the proposed process may be used to garner community and governmental support for projects. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory jobs, Economic Development and Impacts (JEDI) model, developed specifically for wind energy projects, is used. As there is uncertainty in some of the required input parameters, the Monte Carlo simulation allows the input parameters to be entered as a range. The results of the JEDI model with the Monte Carlo simulation analysis produce a distribution for jobs, salaries and wages, and economic output during construction and operations. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation also provide a sensitivity analysis for each of the JEDI outputs. Two northern Arizona counties, Coconino County and Navajo County, were analysed to demonstrate the process. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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