Short-term forecasting of surface layer wind speed using a continuous random cascade model
Article first published online: 17 JAN 2011
Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume 14, Issue 6, pages 719–734, September 2011
How to Cite
Baïle, R., Muzy, J. F. and Poggi, P. (2011), Short-term forecasting of surface layer wind speed using a continuous random cascade model. Wind Energ., 14: 719–734. doi: 10.1002/we.452
- Issue published online: 3 OCT 2011
- Article first published online: 17 JAN 2011
- Manuscript Accepted: 29 NOV 2010
- Manuscript Revised: 22 NOV 2010
- Manuscript Received: 3 MAR 2010
- wind speed;
- random cascade;
- time series model;
- short-term forecasting
This paper describes a statistical method for short-term forecasting (1–12 h ahead) of surface layer wind speed using only recent observations, relying on the notion of continuous cascades. Inspired by recent empirical findings that suggest the existence of some cascading process in the mesoscale range, we consider that wind speed can be described by a seasonal component and a fluctuating part represented by a ‘multifractal noise’ associated with a random cascade. Performances of our model are tested on hourly wind speed series gathered at various locations in Corsica (France) and the Netherlands. The obtained results show that a better modeling of the noise term based on cascade process enhances the forecast; furthermore, there is a systematic improvement in the prediction as compared with reference models. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.