Forecasting ramps of wind power production with numerical weather prediction ensembles
Article first published online: 28 FEB 2012
Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume 16, Issue 1, pages 51–63, January 2013
How to Cite
Bossavy, A., Girard, R. and Kariniotakis, G. (2013), Forecasting ramps of wind power production with numerical weather prediction ensembles. Wind Energ., 16: 51–63. doi: 10.1002/we.526
- Issue published online: 22 JAN 2013
- Article first published online: 28 FEB 2012
- Manuscript Accepted: 13 SEP 2011
- Manuscript Revised: 5 SEP 2011
- Manuscript Received: 18 FEB 2011
- 8Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting for the optimal management of wind generation, Proceedings of the IEEE Power Tech Conference, Lausanne, Swizerland, 2007., , .
- 11The state of the art on short-term wind power prediction—a literature overview. Technical report, ANEMOS EU project, deliverable report D1.1, 2003. [Available online:http://www.anemos-project.eu]., , .
- 12Catalogue of complex to extreme situations. Technical report, EU Project SafeWind, Deliverable Dc1.2, 2009. [Available online: http://www.safewind.eu]..
- 14Characterizing the uncertainty in potential large rapid changes in wind power generation, PhD Thesis, Electrical Engineering & Telecommunications, Faculty of Engineering, UNSW, 2009. [Available online: http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/43570]..
- 16Wind power ramp events classification and forecasting: a data mining approach, Proceedings of the 2011 IEEE Power and Energy Society (PES) Annual General Meeting, Detroit, USA, 2011..
- 17Associating weather conditions with ramp events in wind power generation, IEEE PES Power Systems Conference & Exposition, Phoenix, Arizona, 2011..
- 19Temporal forecast uncertainty for ramp events. Wind Engineering 2009; 33(11): 309–319., , , .
- 20A survey on wind power ramp forecasting, A report from the Argonne US Department of Energy Laboratory, 2010. [Available online at http://www.dis.anl.gov/]., , , , .
- 22From wind ensembles to probabilistic information about future wind power production—results from an actual application, Proceedings of the IEEE PMAPS 2006 Conference, Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, Stockholm, Sweden, 2006., , , , , , , , .
- 25WEPROG ApS. HRensembleHR—High resolution ensemble for Horns Rev, Technical Report, Project funded by the Danish PSO F&U Program, Final Report, 2010. [Available online: http://www.hrensemble.net].
- 26A prototype day-ahead forecast system for rapid wind ramp events, Proceedings of Windpower 2008 Conference and Exhibition, Houston, Texas, 2008., .
- 27Evaluation of time trajectories—application to wind power forecasting. Applied Energy 2011. in press., .
- 28Edge detection techniques—an overview. International Journal of Pattern Recognition and Image Analysis 1998; 8: 537–559., .
- 29On edge detection. Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, IEEE Transactions on 1986; PAMI-8(2): 147–163., .
- 30A computational approach to edge detection. Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, IEEE Transactions on 1986; PAMI-8(6): 679–698..
- 32Estimation of the uncertainty in wind power forecasting, PhD Thesis, MINES Paris Tech, 2006. [Available online: http://pastel.paristech.org]..
- 34The elements of statistical learning: data mining, inference, and prediction, 2nd edn, Springer Series in Statistics. Springer, 2009., , .
- 36An Introduction to General and Generalized Linear Models. Chapman & Hall, 2010., .
- 40What performances can be expected by short-term wind power prediction models depending on site characteristics? Proceedings of the 2004 European Wind Energy Conference EWEC’04, London, UK, 2004., , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .
- 46On computing the distribution function for the sum of independent and non-identical random indicators, Technical Report, Department of Statitics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, 2011..