Companion to Pande , doi:10.1002/wrcr.20422.
Quantile hydrologic model selection and model structure deficiency assessment: 1. Theory
Article first published online: 13 SEP 2013
©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Water Resources Research
Volume 49, Issue 9, pages 5631–5657, September 2013
How to Cite
2013), Quantile hydrologic model selection and model structure deficiency assessment: 1. Theory, Water Resour. Res., 49, 5631–5657, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20411.(
- Issue published online: 23 OCT 2013
- Article first published online: 13 SEP 2013
- Accepted manuscript online: 16 JUL 2013 10:45AM EST
- Manuscript Accepted: 7 JUL 2013
- Manuscript Revised: 18 JUN 2013
- Manuscript Received: 10 NOV 2011
- model structure deficiency;
- quantile model selection;
 A theory for quantile based hydrologic model selection and model structure deficiency assessment is presented. The paper demonstrates that the degree to which a model selection problem is constrained by the model structure (measured by the Lagrange multipliers of the constraints) quantifies structural deficiency. This leads to a formal definition of model structure deficiency (or rigidity). Model structure deficiency introduces a bias in the prediction of an observed quantile, which is often not equal across quantiles. Structure deficiency is therefore diagnosed when any two quantile predictions for a given model structure cross since unequal bias across quantiles result in quantile predictions crossing. The analysis further suggests that the optimal value of quantile specific loss functions order different model structures by its structure deficiencies over a range of quantiles. In addition to such novelties, quantile hydrologic model selection is a frequentist approach that seeks to complement existing Bayesian approaches to hydrological model uncertainty.