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Bailey, M. J., & Dynarski, S. M. (2011). Gains and gaps: Changing inequality in U.S. college entry and completion (NBER Working Paper No. 17633). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. School and college success also correlates highly with race. Only 65 percent of minority students even graduate from high school (Heckman & LaFontaine, 2007) and, of those, only a little over half go right on to some type of college (Aud et al., 2011).
Wolfe, B. L., & Haveman, R. H. (2003). Social and nonmarket benefits from education in an advanced economy. In Y. K. Kodrzycki (Ed.), Education in the 21st century: Meeting the challenges of a changing world, (pp. 97–131). Boston, MA: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
Adelman, C. (2006). The toolbox revisited: Paths to degree completion from high school through college. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education.
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Bailey & Dynarski (2011). ; Carneiro & Heckman (2003).
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Ehrenberg, R. (2002). Tuition rising. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press; Geiger, R. & Heller, D. (2011). Financial trends in higher education: The United States (Working Paper No. 6). University Park, PA: Center for the Study of Higher Education, The Pennsylvania State University. Parents without college degrees have seen their real wages and incomes decline (U.S. Census, 1998; Mishel et al., 2012) and there was been essentially no real income growth in the bottom quintile during 1973−2005.
Geiger & Heller (2011).
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Author's calculations using National Student Clearinghouse data.
The $12,000 will come through their financial aid package at their chosen college. “On time” graduation means within four years of starting ninth grade.
Like almost all forms of college financial aid, receiving the funds requires that students be degree seeking and have at least $1 of unmet need. (Unmet need is the cost of attendance minus the expected family contribution and existing grant and scholarship aid (excluding loans and work study)).
Bowen et al. (2009); Roderick, M., Nagaoka, J., Coca, V., & Moeller, E. (2009). From high school to the future: Making hard work pay off: The road to college for students in CPS's academically advanced programs. Chicago, IL: Consortium for Chicago Schools Research; Rosenbaum, J. (2001). Beyond college for all: Career paths for the forgotten half. New York, NY: Russell Sage Foundation; Schneider, B., & Stevenson, D. (1999). The ambitious generation: America's teenagers, motivated but directionless. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
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Bettinger et al. (2009).
There are some disadvantages of experiments, including their somewhat higher cost and the fact that program implementation and feedback effects are differ from more natural or scaled up programs. See, for example, Larsen, M. & Harris, D. N. (forthcoming). Experiments versus Quasi-Experiments. In D. Brewer & L. Picus (Eds.), Encyclopedia of Education Economics and Education Finance. Washington, DC: Sage Publications.
Bartik, T. J., Eberts, R., & Huang, W.-J. (2010, June). The Kalamazoo promise, and enrollment and achievement trends in Kalamazoo Public Schools. Paper presented at the PromiseNet 2010 Conference, Kalamazoo, MI.
While our randomization is an improvement on individual randomization, it does not mimic a real-world situation. For example, there are some non-first-time ninth graders in the TDP treatment schools and of course many 10th, 11th, and 12th graders. Also, some TDP students will transfer over time.
Nagaoka, J., Roderick, M., & Coca, V. (2008). Barriers to college attainment: Lessons from Chicago. Chicago, IL: Consortium for Chicago Schools Research.
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Deming & Dynarski (2009); Angrist, J., Lang, D., & Oreopoulos, P. (2009). Incentives and services for college achievement: Evidence from a randomized trial. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 1(1), 1–28; Scott-Clayton, J. (2011). On money and motivation: A quasi-experimental analysis of financial incentives for college achievement. Journal of Human Resources, 46(3), 614–646.
Bartik et al. (2010); Miron, G., Spybrook, J., & Evergreen, S. (2008). Key findings from the 2007 survey of high school students (Evaluation of the Kalamazoo Promise: Working Paper No. 3). Retrieved from the Western Michigan University website: http://www.wmich.edu/leadership/kpromise/documents/studentsurvey-3.pdf
Miron, G., Jones, J. N., & Kelaher Young, A. J. (2009). The impact of the Kalamazoo Promise on student attitudes, goals, and aspirations (pp. 5–6) (Evaluation of the Kalamazoo Promise: Working Paper No. 6). Retrieved from the Western Michigan University website: https://www.wmich.edu/leadership/kpromise/documents/aspirations-6.pdf
Bartik, T., & Lachowska, M. (2011). The short-term effects of the Kalamazoo promise scholarship on student outcomes. Paper presented at the 2011 annual meeting of the Association for Public Policy and Management, Washington, DC.
Roderick et al. (2009).
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Roderick et al. (2009).
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Student performance on standardized tests, for example, was influenced in one experiment by randomly assigned information meant to affect students’ beliefs about their academic abilities.
Fowler et al. (2009).
Fowler et al. (2009).
Baum, S., Breneman, D., Chingos, M., Ehrenberg, R., Fowler, P., Hayek, J.,…Whitehurst, G. (2012). Beyond need and merit: Strengthening state grant programs. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution; Deming & Dynarski (2009).
Roderick et al. (2009).
Fletcher, J. M., & Tienda, M. (2009). High school classmates and college success. Sociology of Education, 82(4), 287–314; Harris (2010); Spielhagen (2007).
The primary cost is that some students who are initially eligible early in school may become ineligible once they reach college age, but still receive the scholarship funds.
Heckman, J. J. (2000). Policies to foster human capital. Research in economics, 54(1), 3–56.
Fryer, R. G., Jr. (2010). Financial incentives and student achievement: Evidence from randomized trials (NBER Working Paper No. 15898). Retrieved from National Bureau of Economic Research website: http://www.nber.org/papers/w15898
Heller (2006) argues that stable funding is not enough because of the growth of tuition costs, but this growth itself has been predictable and this same problem arises with late commitment aid. He also provides evidence about the stability of eligibility over time. To ensure that students who fall into poor economic conditions toward the end of high school are still eligible for aid, students could always request that their aid packages be updated. This would have the side effect that, for any given level of funding, aid will be somewhat less well targeted to low-income families compared with late commitment aid; however, these differences are likely to be small given the stability of family circumstances.
Geiger & Heller (2011).
Goldin & Katz (2008).